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Fundamental analysis of Initial Coin Offerings

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  • Yunxia Bai
  • Bofu Zhang

Abstract

This study endeavours to discern the pivotal factors contributing to the success of initial coin offerings (ICOs) on a global scale. Through a comprehensive analysis of ICO characteristics, we explore the intricate relationship between these attributes and the ultimate success of ICO projects. Our empirical findings show that projects that have secured presale funding, coupled with comprehensive token sale information, exhibit a markedly increased likelihood of achieving ICO success. We also employ the automated machine learning method to offer valuable insights into the potential determinants of ICO success. Furthermore, we delve into the underlying rationale behind ICO success by employing SHAP values to discern the relative importance of various ICO characteristics and examine the correlations among these attributes. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of ICO dynamics and offers empirical evidence regarding the critical factors that shape the success of ICO projects. Such insights hold significant implications for both industry practitioners and policymakers seeking to navigate the evolving landscape of blockchain‐based fundraising initiatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunxia Bai & Bofu Zhang, 2025. "Fundamental analysis of Initial Coin Offerings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 879-892, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:30:y:2025:i:1:p:879-892
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2948
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evgeny Lyandres & Berardino Palazzo & Daniel Rabetti, 2022. "Initial Coin Offering (ICO) Success and Post-ICO Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(12), pages 8658-8679, December.
    2. Jingxing (Rowena) Gan & Gerry Tsoukalas & Serguei Netessine, 2021. "Initial Coin Offerings, Speculation, and Asset Tokenization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 914-931, February.
    3. Fisch, Christian, 2019. "Initial coin offerings (ICOs) to finance new ventures," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Jiri Chod & Evgeny Lyandres, 2021. "A Theory of ICOs: Diversification, Agency, and Information Asymmetry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 5969-5989, October.
    5. Lin William Cong & Ye Li & Neng Wang, 2021. "Tokenomics: Dynamic Adoption and Valuation [The demand of liquid assets with uncertain lumpy expenditures]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1105-1155.
    6. Winifred Huang & Michele Meoli & Silvio Vismara, 2020. "The geography of initial coin offerings," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 77-102, June.
    7. Boulding, William & Kirmani, Amna, 1993. "A Consumer-Side Experimental Examination of Signaling Theory: Do Consumers Perceive Warranties as Signals of Quality?," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 20(1), pages 111-123, June.
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