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A Non‐Parametric Estimation Method of the Population Size in Capture‐Recapture Experiments With Right Censored Data

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  • Anabel Blasco‐Moreno
  • Pedro Puig

Abstract

We present a new non‐parametric approach for estimating the total number of animals or species when we only have information on the number of animals or species that have been observed once, twice, …$$ \dots $$, and the number of animals or species that have been observed r$$ r $$ and more than r$$ r $$ times. The approach, like the Chao estimator, gives a lower bound on population size while also providing bootstrap confidence intervals. We conducted simulations to compare our estimator to other competing ones in special scenarios with r=2$$ r=2 $$ and 3 and found that it performed quite well. In the case of uncensored samples, we analyze which censoring point is preferable in specific examples, as well as when censoring at r=3$$ r=3 $$ is superior to censoring at r=2$$ r=2 $$.

Suggested Citation

  • Anabel Blasco‐Moreno & Pedro Puig, 2025. "A Non‐Parametric Estimation Method of the Population Size in Capture‐Recapture Experiments With Right Censored Data," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:36:y:2025:i:3:n:e70013
    DOI: 10.1002/env.70013
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    1. William A. Link, 2003. "Nonidentifiability of Population Size from Capture-Recapture Data with Heterogeneous Detection Probabilities," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1123-1130, December.
    2. Chun-Huo Chiu & Yi-Ting Wang & Bruno A. Walther & Anne Chao, 2014. "An improved nonparametric lower bound of species richness via a modified good–turing frequency formula," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 671-682, September.
    3. Lanumteang, K. & Böhning, D., 2011. "An extension of Chao's estimator of population size based on the first three capture frequency counts," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 2302-2311, July.
    4. B. J. T. Morgan & M. S. Ridout, 2008. "A new mixture model for capture heterogeneity," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(4), pages 433-446, September.
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