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Dynamic impacts of a shock in crude oil price on agricultural chemical and fertilizer prices

Listed author(s):
  • Ronald A. Babula

    (National Aggregate Analysis Section, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture (ERS|USDA))

  • Agapi Somwaru

    (Data Service Center, ERS|USDA)

A monthly vector autoregression (VAR) model of the following prices was estimated over the 1962:1-1990:6 period: crude oil price (CRUDE), industrial chemical price (INDCHEM), agricultural chemical price (AGCHEM), and fertilizer price (FERT). The VAR was shocked with a rise in CRUDE, and dynamic impulse response patterns in AGCHEM and FERT were observed. Results suggest that AGCHEM and FERT responses would be increases; would be mild for half a year; would thereafter gain in strength and peak within 19 to 21 months; and would last for 2.0 to 2.3 years. AGCHEM and FERT would rise by about one-fourth of the percentage increase in CRUDE which occurs over the response period.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Agribusiness.

Volume (Year): 8 (1992)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 243-252

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Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:8:y:1992:i:3:p:243-252
DOI: 10.1002/1520-6297(199205)8:3<243::AID-AGR2720080305>3.0.CO;2-K
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