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Energy mix and its implications on the Vietnamese economy by 2030: A CGE analysis using GTAP-E-Power

Author

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  • Nguyen Duy Chinh

    (Department of International and Area Studies, Pukyong National University, South Korea)

  • Ko Jong-Hwan

    (Department of Global and Area Studies, Pukyong National University, South Korea)

Abstract

This study uses the GTAP-E-Power model to examine the economic and environmental implications of transitioning to different energy generation mixes in Vietnam by 2030. Three scenarios were considered for that year: (1) low-coal and high-gas, (2) low-coal and high-renewables, and (3) high-coal. Scenario 2 emerges as the most balanced approach, resulting in a 1.02% GDP decline and a 0.78% increase in CO2 emissions. In this scenario, the electronics sector grows slightly (+0.3%), while metals (–3.1%) and chemical products (–1.0%) experience moderate declines. In terms of exports, Scenario 2 gives rise to an increase in the trade balance (151 million USD) and a modest gain in exports to China (+0.46%), Japan (+0.37%), Korea (+0.33%), and Western Europe (+0.35%). Across all three scenarios, the output of the electronics industry shows sensitivity to energy mix changes, while the coal mining sector seems to be resilient to changing the energy mix.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen Duy Chinh & Ko Jong-Hwan, 2025. "Energy mix and its implications on the Vietnamese economy by 2030: A CGE analysis using GTAP-E-Power," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 31-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecobur:v:11:y:2025:i:1:p:31-54:n:1005
    DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2025.1.1896
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GTAP-E-Power; CGE; Vietnam; energy mix; renewable energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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