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Global Food Demand and Carbon-Preserving Cropland Expansion under Varying Levels of Intensification

Author

Listed:
  • Justin Andrew Johnson
  • Carlisle Ford Runge
  • Benjamin Senauer
  • Stephen Polasky

Abstract

Increasing demand for agricultural crops and a decline in the rate of yield improvements will require expansion of cropland (extensification), resulting in a loss of carbon storage. This paper uses global, spatially explicit data to analyze how extensification can be located to meet crop demand in a way that minimizes carbon losses under varying levels of intensification. Carbon-preserving extensification can reduce carbon loss by 7.3 billion tons compared to proportionally increasing extensification by 2050, valued at $1.3 trillion (2012 dollars) based on an estimated social cost of carbon of $181 per ton of carbon (∼$50 per ton CO2).

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Andrew Johnson & Carlisle Ford Runge & Benjamin Senauer & Stephen Polasky, 2016. "Global Food Demand and Carbon-Preserving Cropland Expansion under Varying Levels of Intensification," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 92(4), pages 579-592.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:92:y:2016:i:4:p:579-592
    Note: DOI: 10.3368/le.92.4.579
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tina L. Saitone & Richard J. Sexton, 2017. "Agri-food supply chain: evolution and performance with conflicting consumer and societal demands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(4), pages 634-657.
    2. Johnson, Justin Andrew & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Hertel, Thomas & Nootenboom, Chris & Polasky, Stephen & Roxburgh, Toby, 2020. "Global Futures: Modelling the global economic impacts of environmental change to support policy-making," Technical Papers 323944, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Johnson, Justin A. & Kennedy, Christina M. & Oakleaf, James R. & Baruch-Mordo, Sharon & Polasky, Stephen & Kiesecker, Joseph, 2021. "Energy matters: Mitigating the impacts of future land expansion will require managing energy and extractive footprints," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land

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