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The Causal Effects of Youth Cigarette Addiction and Education

Author

Listed:
  • Rong Hai
  • James Heckman

Abstract

We develop and estimate a life-cycle model of addiction in which forward-looking youth choose to smoke, attend school, work part-time, and consume while facing borrowing constraints. The model features multiple channels for studying the reciprocal causal effects of addiction and education. Variations in endowments and cigarette prices are sources of identification. We show that education causally reduces smoking. A counterfactual experiment finds that in the absence of cigarette smoking, college attendance increases by 2 percentage points in the population. An alternative 25% additional excise tax achieves similar results. Impacts vary substantially across persons of different cognitive and noncognitive abilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Rong Hai & James Heckman, 2026. "The Causal Effects of Youth Cigarette Addiction and Education," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 134(5), pages 1347-1400.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/739828
    DOI: 10.1086/739828
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michelle Sovinsky & Liana Jacobi & Alessandra Allocca & Tao Sun, 2024. "More than Joints: Multi-Substance Use, Choice Limitations, and Policy Implications," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_501, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    3. Michelle Sovinsky & Liana Jacobi & Alessandra Allocca & Tao Sun, 2023. "More than Joints: Multi-Substance Use, Choice Limitations, and Policy Implications," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 487, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    4. Piccoli, Luca & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2023. "Eggs When Young, Chicken When Old. Time Consistency and Addiction over the Life Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 16372, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Heckman, James J. & Galaty, Bridget & Tian, Haihan, 2023. "The Economic Approach to Personality, Character and Virtue," IZA Discussion Papers 16133, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Rozhkova, Ksenia & Roshchin, Sergey & Roshchina, Yana, 2023. "Do non-cognitive skills matter for alcohol consumption? Evidence from Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 564-576.
    7. Steffens, Camila & Pereda, Paula Carvalho, 2025. "Dynamic responses to smoking bans: Evidence from young adults in a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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