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Misfortune and Mistake: The Financial Conditions and Decision-Making Ability of High-Cost Loan Borrowers

Author

Listed:
  • Leandro Carvalho
  • Arna Olafsson
  • Dan Silverman

Abstract

The appropriateness of many high-cost loan regulations depends on whether demand is driven by financial conditions (“misfortunes”) or imperfect decisions (“mistakes”). Bank records from Iceland show that borrowers have especially low liquidity just before getting a loan. Borrowers exhibit lower decision-making ability (DMA) in linked-choice experiments: 45% of loan dollars go to the bottom 20% of the DMA distribution. Standard determinants of demand do not explain this relationship, which is also mirrored by the relationship between DMA and an unambiguous mistake. Both misfortune and mistake thus appear to drive demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Leandro Carvalho & Arna Olafsson & Dan Silverman, 2024. "Misfortune and Mistake: The Financial Conditions and Decision-Making Ability of High-Cost Loan Borrowers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(9), pages 3173-3213.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/730200
    DOI: 10.1086/730200
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    Cited by:

    1. Gill, Andrej & Hett, Florian & Tischer, Johannes, 2022. "Time inconsistency and overdraft use: Evidence from transaction data and behavioral measurement experiments," Discussion Papers 18/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Olafsson, Arna & Pagel, Michaela, 2024. "Retirement puzzles: New evidence from personal finances," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    3. Olafsson, Arna & Gathergood, John, 2020. "The Co-holding Puzzle: New Evidence from Transaction-Level Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 14799, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Seth Garz & Xavier Gine & Dean Karlan & Rafe Mazer & Caitlin Sanford & Jonathan Zinman, 2021. "Consumer Protection for Financial Inclusion in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Bridging Regulator and Academic Perspectives," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 219-246, November.
    5. Zachary Bethune & Joaquín Saldain & Eric R. Young, 2024. "Consumer Credit Regulation and Lender Market Power," Staff Working Papers 24-36, Bank of Canada.
    6. Mingshi Chen & Tracy Xiao Liu & You Shan & Shu Wang & Songfa Zhong & Yanju Zhou, 2025. "How General Are Measures of Choice Consistency? Evidence from Experimental and Scanner Data," Papers 2505.05275, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    7. Wang, Jialan & Burke, Kathleen, 2022. "The effects of disclosure and enforcement on payday lending in Texas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 489-507.
    8. Andrej Gill & Florian Hett & Johannes Tischer, 2022. "Time Inconsistency and Overdraft Use: Evidence from Transaction Data and Behavioral Measurement Experiments," Working Papers 2205, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    9. Gill, Andrej & Hett, Florian & Tischer, Johannes, 2022. "Time inconsistency and overdraft use: Evidence from transaction data and behavioral measurement experiments," SAFE Working Paper Series 347, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Joaquín Saldain, 2025. "High-Cost Consumer Credit: Desperation, Temptation and Default," Staff Working Papers 25-6, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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