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Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job-Ladder Risk versus Human Capital

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  • Serdar Ozkan
  • Jae Song
  • Fatih Karahan

Abstract

We study the determinants of lifetime earnings (LE) inequality in the United States by focusing on latent heterogeneity in job-ladder dynamics and on-the-job learning. We use administrative data to document a novel set of moments on job mobility and earnings growth across the LE distribution. We then estimate a structural model featuring a rich set of worker types and firm heterogeneity. We find vast ex ante differences in job-loss, job-finding, and contact rates across worker types. These differences account for 75% of the lifetime wage growth differential among the bottom half of the LE distribution. Above the median, almost all lifetime wage growth differences are a result of Pareto-distributed learning ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song & Fatih Karahan, 2023. "Anatomy of Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Heterogeneity in Job-Ladder Risk versus Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(3), pages 506-550.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpemac:doi:10.1086/725790
    DOI: 10.1086/725790
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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Garcia-Louzao & Linas Tarasonis, 2025. "Earnings Inequality and Risk over Two Decades of Economic Development in Lithuania," GRAPE Working Papers 105, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    2. Dyrda, Sebastian & Kaplan, Greg & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2024. "Living arrangements and labor market volatility of young workers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Rui Castro & Fabian Lange & Markus Poschke, 2024. "Labor Force Transitions," NBER Working Papers 33200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kaas, Leo & Lalé, Etienne & Siassi, Nawid, 2023. "Job Ladder and Wealth Dynamics in General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 18706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bertrand Garbinti & Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa & Vladimir Pecheu & Frédérique Savignac, 2025. "Explaining the Dynamics of the Gender Gap in Lifetime Earnings," Working papers 994, Banque de France.
    6. Guvenen, Fatih & Ozkan, Serdar & Madera, Rocio, 2024. "Consumption dynamics and welfare under non-Gaussian earnings risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Hie Joo Ahn & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered," NBER Working Papers 31241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pedroni, Marcelo & Singh, Swapnil & Stoltenberg, Christian A., 2025. "Advance information and consumption insurance: Evidence and structural estimation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Garbinti, Bertrand & García-Peñalosa, Cecilia & Pecheu, Vladimir & Savignac, Frederique, 2023. "Trends and Inequality in Lifetime Earnings in France," CEPR Discussion Papers 18472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Kaas, Leo & Lalé, Etienne & Siassi, Nawid, 2023. "Job Ladder and Wealth Dynamics in General Equilibrium," EconStor Preprints 280694, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Borovičková, Katarína & Macaluso, Claudia, 2025. "Heterogeneous job ladders," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Ozkan, Serdar, 2025. "Income differences and health disparities: Roles of preventive vs. curative medicine," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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