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The Effects of Time in Prison and Time on Parole on Recidivism

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  • Mariyana Zapryanova

Abstract

In the United States, every year roughly 600,000 people are released from prison, two-thirds of them without having served their full sentence behind bars. Yet little is known about how release before full completion of sentence affects recidivism. I exploit the distinction between sentence and time served in prison to better understand how custodial and noncustodial sanctions affect recidivism. In particular, I study the effects of time in prison and time on parole on recidivism. Relying on two instrumental variables that provide independent variation in sentence and time served in prison, I do not find evidence that parole time affects recidivism. However, I find that a month in prison results in a 1.12-percentage-point decrease in the probability that an individual will reoffend while on parole, but it appears to have no effect on overall reoffending.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariyana Zapryanova, 2020. "The Effects of Time in Prison and Time on Parole on Recidivism," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 699-727.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:doi:10.1086/709585
    DOI: 10.1086/709585
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    Cited by:

    1. Gultekin Gollu & Mariyana Zapryanova, 2022. "The effect of Medicaid on recidivism: Evidence from Medicaid suspension and termination policies," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(2), pages 326-372, October.
    2. Zanella, Giulio, 2020. "Prison Work and Convict Rehabilitation," IZA Discussion Papers 13446, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Brendon McConnell & Kegon Teng Kok Tan & Mariyana Zapryanova, 2023. "How do Parole Boards Respond to Large, Societal Shocks? Evidence from the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks," Working Papers 2023-010, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    4. Alexandra Baier & Loukas Balafoutas & Tarek Jaber-Lopez, 2023. "Ostracism and theft in heterogeneous groups," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 193-222, March.
    5. Julia Godfrey & Kegon Teng Kok Tan & Mariyana Zapryanova, 2023. "The Effect of Parole Board Racial Composition on Prisoner Outcomes," Working Papers 2023-011, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    6. William Arbour & Steeve Marchand, 2022. "Parole, Recidivism, and the Role of Supervised Transition," Working Papers tecipa-725, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

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