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Designing Fuel-Economy Standards in Light of Electric Vehicles

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  • Kenneth T. Gillingham

Abstract

Electric vehicles are declining in cost so rapidly that they may claim a large share of the vehicle market by 2030. This paper examines a set of practical regulatory design considerations for fuel-economy standards or greenhouse gas standards in the context of highly uncertain electric vehicle costs in the next decade. The analysis takes a cost-effectiveness approach and uses analytical modeling and simulation to develop insight. I show that counting electric vehicles under a standard with a multiplier or assuming zero upstream emissions can reduce electric vehicle market share by weakening the standards. Furthermore, there are trade-offs from implementing a backstop conventional vehicle standard along with a second standard that also includes electric vehicles, but such a backstop offers the possibility of ensuring that low-cost conventional vehicle technologies are exploited.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth T. Gillingham, 2022. "Designing Fuel-Economy Standards in Light of Electric Vehicles," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 111-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:epolec:doi:10.1086/717220
    DOI: 10.1086/717220
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Soren T. Anderson & James M. Sallee, 2011. "Using Loopholes to Reveal the Marginal Cost of Regulation: The Case of Fuel-Economy Standards," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1375-1409, June.
    2. Meghan R. Busse & Christopher R. Knittel & Florian Zettelmeyer, 2013. "Are Consumers Myopic? Evidence from New and Used Car Purchases," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 220-256, February.
    3. Sallee, James M. & West, Sarah E. & Fan, Wei, 2016. "Do consumers recognize the value of fuel economy? Evidence from used car prices and gasoline price fluctuations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 61-73.
    4. Kenneth T. Gillingham & Sébastien Houde & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2021. "Consumer Myopia in Vehicle Purchases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 207-238, August.
    5. Koichiro Ito & James M. Sallee, 2018. "The Economics of Attribute-Based Regulation: Theory and Evidence from Fuel Economy Standards," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 319-336, May.
    6. Laura Grigolon & Mathias Reynaert & Frank Verboven, 2018. "Consumer Valuation of Fuel Costs and Tax Policy: Evidence from the European Car Market," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 193-225, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rik L. Rozendaal & Herman R. J. Vollebergh, 2021. "Policy-Induced Innovation in Clean Technologies: Evidence from the Car Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 9422, CESifo.
    2. Linn, Joshua, 2022. "Balancing Equity and Effectiveness for Electric Vehicle Subsidies," RFF Working Paper Series 22-07, Resources for the Future.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

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