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Immigration Lottery Design: Engineered and Coincidental Consequences of H-1B Reforms

Author

Listed:
  • Parag A. Pathak

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER)

  • Alex Rees-Jones

    (University of Pennsylvania and NBER)

  • Tayfun Sönmez

    (Boston College)

Abstract

The H-1B Visa Reform Act of 2004 dictates an annual allocation of 85,000 visas with 20,000 reserved for advanced-degree applicants. We represent the main requirements of this legislation as formal axioms and characterize visa allocation rules consistent with the axioms. Despite the precise number reserved, we show that the range of implementations satisfying these axioms can change the allocation of advanced-degree visas by as much as 14,000 in an average year. Of all rules satisfying these axioms, the 2019 rule imposed by executive order is most favorable to advanced-degree holders. However, two earlier modifications resulted in larger changes, possibly unintentionally.

Suggested Citation

  • Parag A. Pathak & Alex Rees-Jones & Tayfun Sönmez, 2025. "Immigration Lottery Design: Engineered and Coincidental Consequences of H-1B Reforms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:107:y:2025:i:1:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01252
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    Cited by:

    1. Parag A. Pathak & Alex Rees-Jones & Tayfun Sönmez, 2023. "Reversing Reserves," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(11), pages 6940-6953, November.
    2. Rees-Jones, Alex & D’Attoma, John & Piolatto, Amedeo & Salvadori, Luca, 2022. "Experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and support for safety-net expansion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1090-1104.
    3. Li, Mengling & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Xu, Menghan, 2023. "Prioritized organ allocation rules under compatibility constraints," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 403-427.
    4. In'acio B'o & Li Chen, 2021. "Designing Heaven's Will: The job assignment in the Chinese imperial civil service," Papers 2105.02457, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    5. P'eter Bir'o & Avinatan Hassidim & Assaf Romm & Ran I. Shorrer & S'andor S'ov'ag'o, 2020. "The Large Core of College Admission Markets: Theory and Evidence," Papers 2010.08631, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    6. Parag A. Pathak & Tayfun Sönmez & M. Utku Ünver & M. Bumin Yenmez, 2024. "Fair Allocation of Vaccines, Ventilators and Antiviral Treatments: Leaving No Ethical Value Behind in Healthcare Rationing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(6), pages 3999-4036, June.
    7. Elias Bouacida & Renaud Foucart, 2020. "The acceptability of lotteries in allocation problems," Working Papers 301646245, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    8. Parag A. Pathak & Tayfun Sönmez & M. Utku Ünver & M. Bumin Yenmez, 2020. "Leaving No Ethical Value Behind: Triage Protocol Design for Pandemic Rationing," NBER Working Papers 26951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Elias Bouacida & Renaud Foucart, 2022. "Rituals of Reason," Working Papers 344119591, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    10. Bouacida, Elias & Foucart, Renaud, 2025. "Rituals of reason: Experimental evidence on the social acceptability of lotteries in allocation problems," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 23-36.
    11. Nick Arnosti, 2026. "Algorithms for Affirmative Action," INFORMS Transactions on Education, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 119-133, January.
    12. Tayfun Sönmez & M. Bumin Yenmez, 2019. "Can Economic Theory be Informative for the Judiciary? Affirmative Action in India via Vertical and Horizontal Reservations," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1026, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Jun 2021.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law

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