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Credible School Value-Added with Undersubscribed School Lotteries

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Angrist

    (MIT and NBER)

  • Peter Hull

    (Brown University and NBER)

  • Parag A. Pathak

    (MIT and NBER)

  • Christopher Walters

    (University of California Berkeley and NBER)

Abstract

We introduce two empirical strategies harnessing the randomness in school assignment mechanisms to measure school value-added. The first estimator controls for the probability of school assignment, treating take-up as ignorable. We test this assumption using randomness in assignments. The second approach uses assignments as instrumental variables (IVs) for low-dimensional models of value-added and forms empirical Bayes posteriors from these IV estimates. Both strategies solve the underidentification challenge arising from school undersubscription. Models controlling for assignment risk and lagged achievement in Denver and New York City yield reliable value-added estimates. Estimates from models with lower-quality achievement controls are improved by IV.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Angrist & Peter Hull & Parag A. Pathak & Christopher Walters, 2024. "Credible School Value-Added with Undersubscribed School Lotteries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01149
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    Cited by:

    1. Isphording Ingo E. & Zorn Dirk, 2024. "Bildungspolitik ist Arbeitsmarktpolitik," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 104(8), pages 524-526.
    2. Sahlström, Ellen & Silliman, Mikko, 2024. "The Extent and Consequences of Teacher Biases against Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 16899, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Kirill Borusyak & Matan Kolerman-Shemer, 2024. "Regression discontinuity aggregation, with an application to the union effects on inequality," Papers 2501.00428, arXiv.org.
    4. Walters, Christopher, 2024. "Empirical Bayes methods in labor economics," Handbook of Labor Economics,, Elsevier.
    5. Michal Koles'ar & Pengjin Min & Wenjie Wang & Yichong Zhang, 2026. "Cluster-Robust Inference for Quadratic Forms," Papers 2602.13537, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    6. Machin, Stephen & McNally, Sandra & Terrier, Camille & Ventura, Guglielmo, 2020. "Closing the Gap between Vocational and General Education? Evidence from University Technical Colleges in England," IZA Discussion Papers 13837, IZA Network @ LISER.

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