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An Analysis of Professional Judgments


  • Heather Rose

    () (School of Education, University of California, Davis)

  • Jon Sonstelie

    () (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara)


Many states have used professional judgment panels to determine the resources schools need to meet certain performance targets. This study initiates a critical study of that method. Using budget simulations with hypothetical schools, we collected the judgments of forty-five principals about how school budgets should be allocated and how school resources affect student achievement. We found considerable variation among principals in both budget allocations and achievement predictions. We also found that principals were more optimistic about student achievement than is warranted by either achievement in comparable schools or recent research on the relationship between resources and achievement. © 2008 American Education Finance Association

Suggested Citation

  • Heather Rose & Jon Sonstelie, 2008. "An Analysis of Professional Judgments," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 165-196, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:edfpol:v:3:y:2008:i:2:p:165-196

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    More about this item


    professional judgment; school budgets; school resources;

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid


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