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A Bayesian Multivariate Risk-Neutral Method for Pricing Reverse Mortgages

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  • Atsuyuki Kogure
  • Jackie Li
  • Shinichi Kamiya

Abstract

In this article, we propose a Bayesian multivariate framework to price reverse mortgages that involve several risks in both insurance and financial sectors (e.g., mortality rates, interest rates, and house prices). Our method is a multivariate extension of the Bayesian risk-neutral method developed by Kogure and Kurachi. We apply the proposed method to Japanese data to examine the possibility for a successful introduction of reverse mortgages into Japan. The results suggest a promising future for this new market.

Suggested Citation

  • Atsuyuki Kogure & Jackie Li & Shinichi Kamiya, 2014. "A Bayesian Multivariate Risk-Neutral Method for Pricing Reverse Mortgages," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 242-257.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:18:y:2014:i:1:p:242-257
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2013.872983
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    2. Tsai, Pei-Hsuan & Wang, Ying-Wei & Chang, Wen-Chang, 2023. "Hybrid MADM-based study of key risk factors in house-for-pension reverse mortgage lending in Taiwan's banking industry," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Carole Bernard & Adam Kolkiewicz & Junsen Tang, 2023. "Valuation of Reverse Mortgages with Default Risk Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 806-839, May.
    4. Li, Jackie & Haberman, Steven, 2015. "On the effectiveness of natural hedging for insurance companies and pension plans," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 286-297.
    5. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    6. Yang, Bowen & Li, Jackie & Balasooriya, Uditha, 2015. "Using bootstrapping to incorporate model error for risk-neutral pricing of longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 16-27.
    7. Kwong Koon-Shing & Tse Yiu-Kuen & Chay Junxing, 2021. "A Hybrid Equity Release Plan for Retirement Financing," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Kogure Atsuyuki & Fushimi Takahiro, 2018. "A Bayesian Pricing of Longevity Derivatives with Interest Rate Risks," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, January.
    9. Badescu, Alexandru & Quaye, Enoch & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "On non-negative equity guarantee calculations with macroeconomic variables related to house prices," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 119-138.
    10. Dowd, Kevin & Buckner, Dean & Blake, David & Fry, John, 2019. "The valuation of no-negative equity guarantees and equity release mortgages," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    11. Jackie Li & Atsuyuki Kogure & Jia Liu, 2019. "Multivariate Risk-Neutral Pricing of Reverse Mortgages under the Bayesian Framework," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, January.
    12. Iván de la Fuente & Eliseo Navarro & Gregorio Serna, 2020. "Reverse Mortgage Risks. Time Evolution of VaR in Lump-Sum Solutions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Jackie Li & Atsuyuki Kogure, 2021. "Bayesian Mixture Modelling for Mortality Projection," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-12, April.
    14. Fuente, Iván de la & Navarro, Eliseo & Serna, Gregorio, 2021. "Estimating regulatory capital requirements for reverse mortgages. An international comparison," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 239-252.

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