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The Prospects for Future Levels of Car Access and Use

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  • Gordon Stokes

Abstract

This paper aims to build on similarities and differences in empirical findings and analytical approaches in papers in a special issue of the Transport Reviews journal on peak car. These differences are encapsulated in a new exploratory tool, which gives transparent future scenarios, at the aggregate national level. The model is based on age cohorts, with some degree of behavioural inertia, as the means of incorporating the most frequently noted age-related feature of the new trends. This is modified by different readings of the differential effects of population growth and location, immigration, and policy effects. Account is also taken of different assessments of the future track of Western Economies and of the impacts that economic factors have on travel behaviour, this being one of the core distinctions between peak car research and traditional models. Using UK data the suggestion is of a base projection for overall car use per person which is broadly stable for the next 20 years or so, falling slightly by 2036. The conclusion is that the combined effects of findings reported in this Issue are big enough to affect future transport conditions to a much more substantial extent than has been traditionally assumed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon Stokes, 2013. "The Prospects for Future Levels of Car Access and Use," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 360-375, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transr:v:33:y:2013:i:3:p:360-375
    DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2013.800614
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexa Delbosc, 2017. "Delay or forgo? A closer look at youth driver licensing trends in the United States and Australia," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(5), pages 919-926, September.
    2. Webb, Jeremy, 2019. "The future of transport: Literature review and overview," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-6.
    3. Urbanek, Anna, 2021. "Potential of modal shift from private cars to public transport: A survey on the commuters’ attitudes and willingness to switch – A case study of Silesia Province, Poland," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Venu M. Garikapati & Ram M. Pendyala & Eric A. Morris & Patricia L. Mokhtarian & Noreen McDonald, 2016. "Activity patterns, time use, and travel of millennials: a generation in transition?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 558-584, September.
    5. Jessica Berg & Malin Henriksson & Jonas Ihlström, 2019. "Comfort First! Vehicle-Sharing Systems in Urban Residential Areas: The Importance for Everyday Mobility and Reduction of Car Use among Pilot Users," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Delbosc, Alexa & Nakanishi, Hitomi, 2017. "A life course perspective on the travel of Australian millennials," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 319-336.
    7. Lyons, Glenn & Davidson, Cody, 2016. "Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 104-116.
    8. Enoch, M.P. & Cross, R. & Potter, N. & Davidson, C. & Taylor, S. & Brown, R. & Huang, H. & Parsons, J. & Tucker, S. & Wynne, E. & Grieg, D. & Campbell, G. & Jackson, A. & Potter, S., 2020. "Future local passenger transport system scenarios and implications for policy and practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 52-67.
    9. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron, 2016. "Climate policy when preferences are endogenous – and sometimes they are," INET Oxford Working Papers 2016-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.

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