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Newsvendor decisions under supply uncertainty

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  • Anssi Käki
  • Juuso Liesiö
  • Ahti Salo
  • Srinivas Talluri

Abstract

We analyse the impact of supply uncertainty on newsvendor decisions. First, we derive a solution for a newsvendor facing stochastic supply yield, in addition to stochastic demand. While earlier research has considered independent uncertainties, we derive the optimal order quantity for interdependent demand and supply and provide a closed-form solution for a specific copula-based dependence structure. This allows us to give insights into how dependence impacts the newsvendor’s decision, profit and risk level. In addition to the theory, we present experimental results that show how difficult newsvendor decisions under supply uncertainty are for human subjects. In our experiment, the control group replicated a well-known newsvendor experiment, whereas the test group faced additional supply yield uncertainty. Comparison of these results shows that under low-profit condition, subjects are able to incorporate supply uncertainty quite well in their decisions. Under high-profit condition, the deviation from the optimum is much more significant. We discuss this asymmetry and also propose some ways to improve newsvendor decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Anssi Käki & Juuso Liesiö & Ahti Salo & Srinivas Talluri, 2015. "Newsvendor decisions under supply uncertainty," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 1544-1560, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tprsxx:v:53:y:2015:i:5:p:1544-1560
    DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2014.952798
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Xianhao & Chen, Cheng & Zou, Bipan & Wang, Hongwei & Li, Zhiwen, 2023. "Shipping before order making: Optimal shipping quantity and pricing decisions under uncertain demand," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Qingwei Wang & Meimei Zheng & Wei Weng, 2023. "Sourcing decisions with loss aversion under yield and demand randomness," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(2), pages 661-710, June.
    3. Bhavani Shanker Uppari & Sameer Hasija, 2019. "Modeling Newsvendor Behavior: A Prospect Theory Approach," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 481-500, July.
    4. van der Laan, Niels & Teunter, Ruud H. & Romeijnders, Ward & Kilic, Onur A., 2022. "The data-driven newsvendor problem: Achieving on-target service-levels using distributionally robust chance-constrained optimization," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    5. Beatrice Marchi & Simone Zanoni & Marco Pasetti, 2019. "Multi-Period Newsvendor Problem for the Management of Battery Energy Storage Systems in Support of Distributed Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Käki, Anssi & Kemppainen, Katariina & Liesiö, Juuso, 2019. "What to do when decision-makers deviate from model recommendations? Empirical evidence from hydropower industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 869-882.
    7. Zhi Chen & Weijun Xie, 2021. "Regret in the Newsvendor Model with Demand and Yield Randomness," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(11), pages 4176-4197, November.
    8. Sillanpää, Ville & Liesiö, Juuso & Käki, Anssi, 2021. "Procurement decisions over multiple periods under piecewise-linear shortage costs and fixed capacity commitments," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

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