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Quantile forecast combinations in realised volatility prediction

Author

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  • Loukia Meligkotsidou
  • Ekaterini Panopoulou
  • Ioannis D. Vrontos
  • Spyridon D. Vrontos

Abstract

This paper tests whether it is possible to improve point, quantile, and density forecasts of realised volatility by conditioning on a set of predictive variables. We employ quantile autoregressive models augmented with macroeconomic and financial variables. Complete subset combinations of both linear and quantile forecasts enable us to efficiently summarise the information content in the candidate predictors. Our findings suggest that no single variable is able to provide more information for the evolution of the volatility distribution beyond that contained in its own past. The best performing variable is the return on the stock market followed by the inflation rate. Our complete subset approach achieves superior point, quantile, and density predictive performance relative to the univariate models and the autoregressive benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Loukia Meligkotsidou & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Ioannis D. Vrontos & Spyridon D. Vrontos, 2019. "Quantile forecast combinations in realised volatility prediction," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1720-1733, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tjorxx:v:70:y:2019:i:10:p:1720-1733
    DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2018.1489354
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander, Carol & Han, Yang & Meng, Xiaochun, 2023. "Static and dynamic models for multivariate distribution forecasts: Proper scoring rule tests of factor-quantile versus multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1078-1096.
    2. Cheng, Tingting & Jiang, Shan & Zhao, Albert Bo & Jia, Zhimin, 2023. "Complete subset averaging methods in corporate bond return prediction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Lyócsa, Štefan & Todorova, Neda & Výrost, Tomáš, 2021. "Predicting risk in energy markets: Low-frequency data still matter," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    4. Constandina Koki & Loukia Meligkotsidou & Ioannis Vrontos, 2020. "Forecasting under model uncertainty: Non‐homogeneous hidden Markov models with Pòlya‐Gamma data augmentation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 580-598, July.
    5. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti & J. Hunter, 2022. "Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1077-1116, June.
    6. Alexandridis, Antonios K. & Apergis, Iraklis & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Voukelatos, Nikolaos, 2023. "Equity premium prediction: The role of information from the options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Ben Moews, 2023. "On random number generators and practical market efficiency," Papers 2305.17419, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    8. Jan G. De Gooijer, 2023. "Penalized Averaging of Quantile Forecasts from GARCH Models with Many Exogenous Predictors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 407-424, June.
    9. De Gooijer Jan G. & Zerom Dawit, 2020. "Penalized Averaging of Parametric and Non-Parametric Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, January.

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