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Border carbon adjustments and industrial competitiveness in a European Green Deal

Author

Listed:
  • Stuart Evans
  • Michael A. Mehling
  • Robert A. Ritz
  • Paul Sammon

Abstract

As part of the European Green Deal, the EU is considering the introduction of a Border Carbon Adjustment (BCA) on imports as an alternative to free allocation of emission allowances to reduce the risk of carbon leakage under the EU’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). While a BCA for exports is not categorically excluded, it is less likely to be consistent with World Trade Organisation rules and therefore less likely to be proposed than an import-only BCA. In this paper, we show that replacing free allocation by an import-only BCA would weaken the competitiveness of EU producers in foreign markets. Free allocation also helps support the cost competitiveness of domestic products that are exported to non-EU markets. Therefore, a move to import-only BCAs does not necessarily make redundant the continued use of free allocation to help safeguard overall industrial competitiveness. While combining an import BCA with free allocation for exports can increase the risk of legal challenges, such risks may be reduced with an appropriate design. More broadly, policymakers need to navigate a complex trade-off between competitiveness support, a stronger carbon price signal, and extra fiscal revenue.Key policy insights A BCA on imports levels the playing field in domestic EU markets but does not provide competitiveness support to exportsTherefore, a move to an import-only BCAs does not obviate the need for free allocation to safeguard overall industrial competitivenessWhile combining an import-only BCA with free allocation for exports increases the risk of legal challenges, such risks may be reduced with an appropriate design

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart Evans & Michael A. Mehling & Robert A. Ritz & Paul Sammon, 2021. "Border carbon adjustments and industrial competitiveness in a European Green Deal," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 307-317, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:21:y:2021:i:3:p:307-317
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1856637
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    Cited by:

    1. Stede, Jan & Pauliuk, Stefan & Hardadi, Gilang & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2021. "Carbon pricing of basic materials: Incentives and risks for the value chain and consumers," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Michael A Mehling & Geoffroy Dolphin & Robert A Ritz, 2024. "The European Union's CBAM: averting emissions leakage or promoting the diffusion of carbon pricing?," Working Papers EPRG2416, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    3. Perdana, Sigit & Vielle, Marc, 2022. "Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Wissal Morchid & Eduardo A. Haddad & Luc Savard, 2024. "Measuring the Cost of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Moroccan Exports," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Fan, Wen-Jing & Fang, Yao & Jiang, Rui-Bo, 2024. "An analysis of optimal equilibrium in the carbon trading market - From a tripartite evolutionary game perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    6. Michael Mehling & Robert Ritz, 2020. "Going beyond default intensities in an EU carbon border adjustment mechanism," Working Papers EPRG2026, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    7. Sigit Perdana & Marc Vielle, 2023. "Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 299-329, July.
    8. Xianting Bao & Yuran Jin, 2025. "Insight into border carbon adjustment: a visual bibliometric analysis from 2009 to 2024," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Olga Navickienė & Ieva Meidutė-Kavaliauskienė & Renata Činčikaitė & Mangirdas Morkūnas & Asta Valackienė, 2023. "The Expression of the Country’s Modernisation in the Context of Economic Environmental Sustainability: The Case of Lithuania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-18, July.
    10. Karen Turner & Julia Race & Oluwafisayo Alabi & Antonios Katris & Kim Swales, 2023. "The relationship between a ‘polluter pays’ approach to carbon capture, regional policy and ‘just transition’ employment agendas," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 366-378, March.
    11. Kyle S. Herman, 2024. "Intermediaries and complexity: assessing emissions-based governance in the European Union’s EU-ETS," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 539-564, December.
    12. Michael A Mehling & Robert A Ritz, 2023. "From theory to practice: determining emissions in traded goods under a border carbon adjustment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 39(1), pages 123-133.
    13. Chunyan Dai & Michael G Pollitt, 2024. "From local carbon emissions pilots to the national carbon emissions trading scheme in China," Working Papers EPRG2417, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    14. Tian Lan & Ran Tao, 2024. "Research on the Inhibitory Effect of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Carbon Leakage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-21, August.
    15. Chen, Zhe-Yi & Zhao, Lu-Tao & Cheng, Lei & Qiu, Rui-Xiang, 2025. "How does China respond to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism? An approach of global trade analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • K33 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - International Law
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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