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The logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia, Ukraine, and the conflict in Donbas

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  • Tatyana Malyarenko
  • Stefan Wolff

Abstract

The crisis in Ukraine since late 2013 has seen four successive internationally mediated agreements that have been at best partially implemented. Drawing on extensive fieldwork and 42 key informant interviews sides, we explain this outcome with reference to the logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia is currently unable to achieve a friendly and stable regime in Kyiv and thus hedges against the consolidation of an unfriendly pro-Western and stable regime by maintaining its control over parts of eastern Ukraine and solidifying the dependence of local regimes there on Russian support. This gives Russia the opportunity to maintain the current status quo or settle for re-integration terms through which Russia can sustain long-term influence over Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy. We conclude by reflecting on the consequences of competitive influence-seeking in the post-Soviet space: the likely persistence of low-intensity conflict in Ukraine; the further consolidation of territorial divisions in other post-Soviet conflicts; and the need for policy-makers in Russia and the West to prioritize the management of the consequent instability.

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  • Tatyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff, 2018. "The logic of competitive influence-seeking: Russia, Ukraine, and the conflict in Donbas," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 191-212, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpsaxx:v:34:y:2018:i:4:p:191-212
    DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2018.1425083
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    Cited by:

    1. Shevchenko, Valentina V., 2019. "The reform of the higher education of Ukraine in the conditions of the military-political crisis," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 237-253.
    2. Rico Ihle & Ziv Bar‐Nahum & Oleg Nivievskyi & Ofir D. Rubin, 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the synchronisation of global commodity prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 775-796, October.
    3. Chiara Natalie Focacci & Mitja Kovac & Rok Spruk, 2022. "The perils of Kremlin's influence: evidence from Ukraine," Papers 2206.04950, arXiv.org.
    4. Stavros Kalogiannidis & Fotios Chatzitheodoridis & Dimitrios Kalfas & Stamatis Kontsas & Ermelinda Toska, 2022. "The Economic Impact of Russia s Ukraine Conflict on the EU Fuel Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 37-49, November.
    5. Borys Kormych & Tetyana Malyarenko & Cindy Wittke, 2023. "Rescaling the legal dimensions of grey zones: Evidence from Ukraine," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(3), pages 516-530, June.
    6. Tsourapas, Gerasimos, 2018. "Authoritarian Emigration States: Soft Power and Cross-Border Mobility in the Middle East," SocArXiv w58yj, Center for Open Science.
    7. Oleg Bazaluk & Svitlana Balinchenko, 2020. "Dynamic Coordination of Internal Displacement: Return and Integration Cases in Ukraine and Georgia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, May.

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