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Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on land use in the Giza Governorate, Greater Cairo Metropolitan region

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  • Taher Osman
  • Prasanna Divigalpitiya
  • Takafumi Arima

Abstract

The goal of this paper was to find an appropriate urban policy to preserve arable land that is being consumed by highly accelerated urban growth in the Giza Governorate of the Greater Cairo Metropolitan region for the last 50 years. We simulated three different urban policies and relevant growth scenarios for Giza from 2015 to 2035 by using the SLEUTH model to investigate their effects on arable lands. The first scenario used historical growth trends to simulate the persistent growth trends under existing conditions. The second was a compact growth scenario with robust restrictions on development in areas outside of designated growth centres. The third scenario considered officially planned growth that integrated stricter growth plans and stronger protections on lands with natural resources at a level that could be realistically accomplished with strong political commitments. The input data required by the model, including slope, land use, exclusion, and urban growth, transportation, and hill shade were derived from three Landsat satellite images from 1984, 2000, and 2013, according to supervised classifications. The simulation results found that the compact growth policy scenario had the least negative impact on arable lands, while the historical growth scenario had the worst impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Taher Osman & Prasanna Divigalpitiya & Takafumi Arima, 2016. "Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on land use in the Giza Governorate, Greater Cairo Metropolitan region," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 407-426, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjusxx:v:20:y:2016:i:3:p:407-426
    DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2016.1216327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. K C Clarke & S Hoppen & L Gaydos, 1997. "A Self-Modifying Cellular Automaton Model of Historical Urbanization in the San Francisco Bay Area," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 24(2), pages 247-261, April.
    2. Wei-Ning Xiang & Keith C Clarke, 2003. "The Use of Scenarios in Land-Use Planning," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 30(6), pages 885-909, December.
    3. Claire A Jantz & Scott J Goetz & Mary K Shelley, 2004. "Using the Sleuth Urban Growth Model to Simulate the Impacts of Future Policy Scenarios on Urban Land Use in the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 31(2), pages 251-271, April.
    4. Reihaneh Peiman & Keith Clarke, 2014. "The Impact of Data Time Span on Forecast Accuracy through Calibrating the SLEUTH Urban Growth Model," International Journal of Applied Geospatial Research (IJAGR), IGI Global, vol. 5(3), pages 21-35, July.
    5. Taher Osman & Prasanna Divigalpitiya & Takafumi Arima, 2016. "Driving factors of urban sprawl in Giza governorate of the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region using a logistic regression model," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 206-225, July.
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    1. Hsing-Fu Kuo & Ko-Wan Tsou, 2017. "Modeling and Simulation of the Future Impacts of Urban Land Use Change on the Natural Environment by SLEUTH and Cluster Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Md Shihab Uddin & Badal Mahalder & Debabrata Mahalder, 2023. "Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Changes and Future Predictions Using CA-ANN Simulation for Gazipur City Corporation, Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman & Burak Güneralp, 2020. "A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, July.
    4. Siyu Miao & Yang Xiao & Ling Tang, 2022. "Urban Growth Simulation Based on a Multi-Dimension Classification of Growth Types: Implications for China’s Territory Spatial Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, December.

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