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Optimism and the perceptions of new risks

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  • Joan Costa-Font
  • Elias Mossialos
  • Caroline Rudisill

Abstract

While many risks, especially new ones, are not objectively quantifiable, individuals still form perceptions of risks using incomplete or unclear evidence about the true nature of those risks. In the case of well known risks, such as smoking, individuals perceive risks to be smaller for themselves than others, exhibiting 'optimism bias'. Although existing evidence supports optimism bias occurring in the case of risks about which individuals are familiar, evidence does not yet exist to suggest that optimism bias applies for new risks. This paper addresses this question by examining the gap in perceptions of risks individuals have for themselves versus society and the environment, conceptualised as social and/or environmental optimism biases. We draw upon the 2002 UEA-MORI Risk Survey to examine the existence of optimism bias and its effects on risk perceptions and acceptance regarding five science and technology-related topics: climate change, mobile phones, radioactive waste, GM food and genetic testing. Our findings provide evidence of social and environmental optimism bias following similar patterns and optimism bias appearing greater for those risks bringing sizeable benefit to individuals (e.g. mobile phone radiation) rather than those more acutely affecting society or the environment (e.g. GM food or climate change). Social optimism bias is found to reduce risk perceptions for risks that have received large amounts of media attention, namely, climate change and GM food. On the other hand, optimism bias appears to increase risk perceptions about genetic testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Joan Costa-Font & Elias Mossialos & Caroline Rudisill, 2009. "Optimism and the perceptions of new risks," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 27-41, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:12:y:2009:i:1:p:27-41
    DOI: 10.1080/13669870802445800
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    Cited by:

    1. Trawöger, Lisa, 2014. "Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-351.
    2. Celidoni, Martina & Costa-Font, Joan & Salmasi, Luca, 2022. "Too Healthy to Fall Sick? Longevity Expectations and Protective Health Behaviours during the First Wave of COVID-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 733-745.
    3. Greenberg, Michael & Truelove, Heather, 2010. "Right answers and right-wrong answers: Sources of information influencing knowledge of nuclear-related information," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 130-140, September.
    4. Caroline Rudisill, 2013. "How do we handle new health risks? Risk perception, optimism, and behaviors regarding the H1N1 virus," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 959-980, September.
    5. Craig Trumbo & Michelle A. Meyer & Holly Marlatt & Lori Peek & Bridget Morrissey, 2014. "An Assessment of Change in Risk Perception and Optimistic Bias for Hurricanes Among Gulf Coast Residents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1013-1024, June.
    6. Michael Greenberg & Heather Barnes Truelove, 2011. "Energy Choices and Risk Beliefs: Is It Just Global Warming and Fear of a Nuclear Power Plant Accident?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(5), pages 819-831, May.
    7. John T. Brady, 2012. "Health risk perceptions across time in the USA," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 547-563, June.
    8. Sunhee Kim & Seoyong Kim, 2018. "Exploring the Determinants of Perceived Risk of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, June.
    9. Raf Buyle & Mathias Van Compernolle & Eveline Vlassenroot & Ziggy Vanlishout & Peter Mechant & Erik Mannens, 2018. "“Technology Readiness and Acceptance Model” as a Predictor for the Use Intention of Data Standards in Smart Cities," Media and Communication, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(4), pages 127-139.
    10. Nicole Betz & John D. Coley, 2022. "Human Exceptionalist Thinking about Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-28, August.
    11. Joseph T. Ripberger & Hank C. Jenkins‐Smith & Carol L. Silva & Jeffrey Czajkowski & Howard Kunreuther & Kevin M. Simmons, 2018. "Tornado Damage Mitigation: Homeowner Support for Enhanced Building Codes in Oklahoma," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2300-2317, November.
    12. Seoyong Kim & Sunhee Kim, 2015. "The role of value in the social acceptance of science-technology," International Review of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 305-322, July.
    13. Emma Weitkamp & Lindsey McEwen & Patty Ramirez, 2020. "Communicating the hidden: toward a framework for drought risk communication in maritime climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 831-850, November.

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