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Real interest rates and growth: Improving on some deflating experiences

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  • Huw Pill

Abstract

Tests of the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis typically investigate the relationship between real interest rates and growth. Recent work has concluded that this relationship may be non-monotonic. This article investigates the role of real interest rate mismeasurement in explaining these non-monotonicities. When such mismeasurement is systematically related to growth, it will produced biased empirical results. After addressing these biases, the article demonstrates that financial liberalisation may offer substantial economic gains. In an 'average' country, raising real interest rates from -25 per cent to five per cent will increase real annual per capita GDP growth from zero to a relatively robust rate of two per cent.

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  • Huw Pill, 1997. "Real interest rates and growth: Improving on some deflating experiences," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 85-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:34:y:1997:i:1:p:85-110
    DOI: 10.1080/00220389708422504
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    Cited by:

    1. Salas, Sergio & Odell, Kathleen, 2022. "Illiquid investments and the non-monotone relationship between credit and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Pravakar Sahoo & Ashwani Bishnoi, 2021. "IMPACT OF OUTWARD FDI: Evidence from Emerging Economies for Policy," IEG Working Papers 433, Institute of Economic Growth.
    3. Sahoo, Pravakar & Bishnoi, Ashwani, 2021. "Impact of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1131-1148.
    4. Mamoon, Dawood & Nicholas, Howard, 2017. "Financial Liberalisation and Economic Growth: A Preliminary Analysis," MPRA Paper 82976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Maslov, Alexander, 2011. "Inflationary Handicap Of The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence From Russia," MPRA Paper 50036, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Apr 2012.

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