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The World Trade Collapse and International Value Chains: A Cross-Country Perspective

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  • Peter A.G. van Bergeijk

Abstract

This paper challenges the mainstream narrative that links the strength and speed of the world trade collapse in 2008--2009 to the international fragmentation of production, organized in international value chains. The paper points out often overlooked counteracting forces such as non-bank-intermediated credit, trust in long-term commercial affairs and intra-firm relationships. A cross-section of the strength and speed of the import decline in 42 countries shows that both the share of manufacturing trade and an indicator for the vertical specialization in trade are associated with less contraction and slower adjustment. Countries with large shares of manufactures in trade (a proxy for international value chain activity) and/or vertical specialization in trade did not reduce their trade more strongly. The empirical evidence points out that international value chains may very well have had a major dampening effect that reduced the extent to which world trade fell.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2013. "The World Trade Collapse and International Value Chains: A Cross-Country Perspective," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 41-53, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:27:y:2013:i:1:p:41-53
    DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2012.658833
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    1. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2010. "On the Brink of Deglobalization," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14122.
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    1. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2015. "The heterogeneity of world trade collapses," ISS Working Papers - General Series 606, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Marcel Berg & Marjolijn Jaarsma, 2017. "What drives heterogeneity in the resilience of trade: Firm-specific versus regional characteristics," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 13-32, March.
    3. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2017. "One is not enough! An economic history perspective on world trade collapses and deglobalization," ISS Working Papers - General Series 98695, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    4. Li, C. & van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2016. "Do natural disasters stimulate international trade?," ISS Working Papers - General Series 622, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.

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