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Asymmetric Price Adjustment in the US Gasoline Industry: Evidence from Bayesian Threshold Dynamic Panel Data Models


  • Michael L. Polemis
  • Mike G. Tsionas


This paper investigates the gasoline price adjustment to changes in the input cost price for a panel of 48 US states using a monthly data set covering the period 1994–2011. We build, for the first time, a non-linear threshold panel vector-error-correction model (PVECM) and propose efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian techniques. Our findings indicate that states with high margin experience a slower adjustment and a more asymmetric response to input price cost shocks. Our results are robust to potential structural breaks in the threshold parameter, which is important as market conditions change over time and are very sensitive to production/consumption constraints. Lastly, we attribute fluctuations in the gasoline prices to input cost shocks, arguing that the peak responses occurring one month after the shock are short-lived.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael L. Polemis & Mike G. Tsionas, 2017. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment in the US Gasoline Industry: Evidence from Bayesian Threshold Dynamic Panel Data Models," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 91-128, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ijecbs:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:91-128
    DOI: 10.1080/13571516.2016.1221628

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bermingham, Colin & O’ Brien, Derry, 2010. "Testing for Asymmetric Pricing Behaviour in Irish and UK Petrol and Diesel Markets," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/10, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2009. "Do Retail Petrol Prices Rise More Rapidly Than They Fall in Australia’s Capital Cities?," Economics Working Papers wp09-08, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    3. Riemer P. Faber, 2009. "Asymmetric Price Responses of Gasoline Stations: Evidence for Heterogeneity of Retailers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-106/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Chaoyi & Polemis, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 2018. "On the Examination of Competition in the Petroleum Industry: A Pooled Panel Threshold Analysis," MPRA Paper 89671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Polemis, Michael L., 2020. "Carbon pass-through in the electricity sector: An econometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Dagoumas, Athanasios & Polemis, Michael, 2018. "Analysing Carbon Pass-Through Rate Mechanism in the Electricity Sector: Evidence from Greece," MPRA Paper 91067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Deltas, George & Polemis, Michael, 2018. "Estimating retail gasoline price dynamics: The effects of sample characteristics and research design," MPRA Paper 89570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Chen, Chaoyi & Polemis, Michael & Stengos, Thanasis, 2019. "Can exchange rate pass-through explain the asymmetric gasoline puzzle? Evidence from a pooled panel threshold analysis of the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & God'stime O. Eigbiremolen & Charles O. Manasseh & Ifeoma C. Mba, 2018. "Asymmetric Price Transmission and Rent‐seeking in Road Fuel Markets: A Comparative Study of South Africa and Selected Eurozone Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(3), pages 278-290, September.

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