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Differences of opinion in sovereign credit signals during the European crisis

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  • Rasha Alsakka
  • Owain ap Gwilym
  • Huong Vu

Abstract

Motivated by the European debt crisis and the new European Union regulatory regime for the credit rating industry, we analyse differences of opinion in sovereign credit signals and their influence on European stock markets. Rating disagreements have a significant connection with subsequent negative credit actions by each agency. However, links among Moody’s/Fitch actions and their rating disagreements with other agencies have weakened in the post-regulation period. We also find that only S&P’s negative credit signals affect the own-country stock market and spill over to other European markets, but this is concentrated in the pre-regulation period. Stronger stock market reactions occur when S&P has already assigned a lower rating than Moody’s/Fitch prior to taking a further negative action.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym & Huong Vu, 2017. "Differences of opinion in sovereign credit signals during the European crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(10), pages 859-884, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:23:y:2017:i:10:p:859-884
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2016.1177565
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    Cited by:

    1. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah, 2023. "To what extent do sovereign rating actions affect global equity market sectors?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 240-261.
    2. Tran, Yen & Vu, Huong & Klusak, Patrycja & Kraemer, Moritz & Hoang, Tri, 2021. "Sovereign credit ratings during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Qureshi, Anum, 2022. "Impact of sovereign credit ratings on systemic risk and the moderating role of regulatory reforms: An international investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Hu, Haoshen & Prokop, Jörg & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2022. "Transnational spillover effects of European sovereign rating signals on bank stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 171-182.
    5. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.
    6. Hu, Haoshen & Prokop, Jörg & Shi, Yukun & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2020. "The rating spillover from banks to sovereigns: An empirical investigation across the European Union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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