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Linking wealth and labour income with stock returns and government bond yields

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  • Ricardo M. Sousa

Abstract

In this paper, I assess the predictive ability of the ratio of asset wealth to labour income for both stock returns and government bond yields. Using data for 16 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, I show that when the wealth-to-income ratio falls, investors demand a higher stock risk premium. A similar link can be found for government bond yields when agents behave in a non-Ricardian manner or see government bonds as complements for stocks. In contrast, when investors display a Ricardian behaviour or perceive stocks and government bonds as good substitutes, a fall in the wealth-to-income ratio is associated with a fall in future bond premium.

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  • Ricardo M. Sousa, 2015. "Linking wealth and labour income with stock returns and government bond yields," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10-11), pages 806-825, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:21:y:2015:i:10-11:p:806-825
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2012.676993
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    Cited by:

    1. João M. Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2019. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the Euro Area, the US and the UK," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 139-176, June.
    2. Vighneswara Swamy, 2019. "Wealth Effects and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1755-1773.
    3. Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Predicting asset returns in the BRICS: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-143.
    4. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2019. "Predicting stock market movements with a time-varying consumption-aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 458-467.
    6. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 91-115, March.
    7. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Jawadi, Fredj, 2021. "Does inequality help in forecasting equity premium in a panel of G7 countries?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Linking U.S. State-level housing market returns, and the consumption-(Dis)Aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 779-810.
    9. Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Variants of consumption‐wealth ratios and predictability of U.S. government bond risk premia," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 661-674, June.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Ricardo M. Sousa & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "What Can Fifty-Two Collateralizable Wealth Measures Tell Us About Future Housing Market Returns? Evidence from U.S. State-Level Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 81-107, January.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Eric Olson, 2020. "Effect of uncertainty on U.S. stock returns and volatility: evidence from over eighty years of high-frequency data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(16), pages 1305-1311, September.
    12. Wang, Guocheng & Wang, Yanyi, 2018. "Herding, social network and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 74-81.
    13. Sousa, João & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Predicting risk premium under changes in the conditional distribution of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 204-218.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do cay and cayMS predict stock and housing returns? Evidence from a nonparametric causality test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 269-279.
    15. Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2016. "The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 282-301, May.
    16. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Variants of Consumption-Wealth Ratios and Predictability of U.S. Government Bond Risk Premia: Old is still Gold," Working Papers 201912, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Mauro Costantini & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread, and flight to quality," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 778-807, June.
    18. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Consumption and Wealth in the US, the UK and the Euro Area:A Nonlinear Investigation," NIPE Working Papers 24/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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