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Probabilistic Modeling Of Workforce-Based Disruptions And Input-Output Analysis Of Interdependent Ripple Effects

Author

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  • Mark Orsi
  • Joost Santos

Abstract

This paper extends the formulation of the input-output model to account for events that cause time varying and probabilistic workforce disruptions. One example of such an event is a pandemic, because the rates with which it affects the working population vary from period to period and are coupled with uncertainties. To address such complexities, the paper develops two extensions: (i) a method of translating unavailable workforce into a measure of sector productivity disruption, and (ii) a simulation framework to account for the possible variations in economic output losses. These extensions are implemented via a MATLAB program to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Orsi & Joost Santos, 2010. "Probabilistic Modeling Of Workforce-Based Disruptions And Input-Output Analysis Of Interdependent Ripple Effects," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 3-18.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:3-18 DOI: 10.1080/09535311003612419
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roland-Holst, David W & Sancho, Ferran, 1992. "Relative Income Determination in the United States: A Social Accounting Perspective," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, pages 311-327.
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    7. Frederic Scherer, 2003. "Technology Flows Matrix Estimation Revisited," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 327-358.
    8. Bart Los & Bart Verspagen, 2000. "R&D spillovers and productivity: Evidence from U.S. manufacturing microdata," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 127-148.
    9. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los, 2002. "Externalities of R&D Expenditures," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 407-425.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amine El Haimar & Joost Santos, 2015. "A stochastic recovery model of influenza pandemic effects on interdependent workforce systems," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, pages 987-1011.

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