IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic Modeling Of Workforce-Based Disruptions And Input-Output Analysis Of Interdependent Ripple Effects


  • Mark Orsi
  • Joost Santos


This paper extends the formulation of the input-output model to account for events that cause time varying and probabilistic workforce disruptions. One example of such an event is a pandemic, because the rates with which it affects the working population vary from period to period and are coupled with uncertainties. To address such complexities, the paper develops two extensions: (i) a method of translating unavailable workforce into a measure of sector productivity disruption, and (ii) a simulation framework to account for the possible variations in economic output losses. These extensions are implemented via a MATLAB program to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Orsi & Joost Santos, 2010. "Probabilistic Modeling Of Workforce-Based Disruptions And Input-Output Analysis Of Interdependent Ripple Effects," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 3-18.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:3-18
    DOI: 10.1080/09535311003612419

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Amine El Haimar & Joost Santos, 2015. "A stochastic recovery model of influenza pandemic effects on interdependent workforce systems," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 987-1011, June.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:3-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.