Probabilistic Modeling Of Workforce-Based Disruptions And Input-Output Analysis Of Interdependent Ripple Effects
This paper extends the formulation of the input-output model to account for events that cause time varying and probabilistic workforce disruptions. One example of such an event is a pandemic, because the rates with which it affects the working population vary from period to period and are coupled with uncertainties. To address such complexities, the paper develops two extensions: (i) a method of translating unavailable workforce into a measure of sector productivity disruption, and (ii) a simulation framework to account for the possible variations in economic output losses. These extensions are implemented via a MATLAB program to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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