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The long-run impact of new medical ideas on cancer survival and mortality

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  • Frank R. Lichtenberg

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that the arrival of new medical ideas played a major role in the long-run increase in US cancer survival and decline in cancer mortality, by investigating whether the types of cancer (breast, colon, lung, etc.) subject to greater penetration of new ideas, measured using the MEDLINE/PubMED database, had larger subsequent survival gains and mortality reductions, controlling for changing incidence. The 5-year survival rate is strongly positively related to the novelty of ideas in articles published 12–24 years earlier; evidence from case studies that it takes a long time for research evidence to reach clinical practice. Between 1994 and 2008, the 5-year observed survival rate for all cancer sites combined increased from 52.1% to 61.2%. The estimates suggest that about 70% of this increase may have been due to the increase in the novelty of medical ideas 12–24 years earlier. The number of years of potential life lost from cancer before ages 80 and 70 and the number of cancer deaths are inversely related to the novelty of ideas in articles published 12–24 years earlier, conditional on the number of patients diagnosed 1–10 years before and their mean age at time of diagnosis.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2019. "The long-run impact of new medical ideas on cancer survival and mortality," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 722-740, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecinnt:v:28:y:2019:i:7:p:722-740
    DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2018.1557421
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeon, Sung-Hee & Pohl, R. Vincent, 2019. "Medical innovation, education, and labor market outcomes of cancer patients," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Lichtenberg, Frank R., 2025. "The impact of biomedical innovation on cancer mortality in 37 countries, 2003–2017," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Volha Lazuka, 2022. "Household and individual economic outcomes of different health shocks: The role of medical innovations," Papers 2206.03306, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    4. Rebecca McKibbin & Bruce A. Weinberg, 2021. "Does Research Save Lives? The Local Spillovers of Biomedical Research on Mortality," NBER Working Papers 29420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Anne-Line Koch Helsø & Mr. Nicola Pierri & Adelina Yanyue Wang, 2019. "The Economic Impact of Healthcare Quality," IMF Working Papers 2019/173, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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