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A time-series analysis of UK annual and quarterly construction output data (1955-95)

Author

Listed:
  • David Notman
  • George Norman
  • Roger Flanagan
  • Andrew Agapiou

Abstract

United Kingdom construction output makes a vitally important contribution to the gross domestic product of the UK economy. Nevertheless, despite the obvious importance of UK construction, very little is known about the output behaviour of the industry. This paper endeavours to redress the imbalance by analysing the post-war time-series behaviour of annual and quarterly UK construction output. The primary technique of analysis is to estimate an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model of UK construction output. Such a model proxies the stochastic or random process that underlies UK construction output data. Also, a review is given of the methodology of estimation and diagnostic checking of ARIMA models in the context of UK construction output, together with ex-post and ex-ante forecasts of UK construction output using the estimated ARIMA models.

Suggested Citation

  • David Notman & George Norman & Roger Flanagan & Andrew Agapiou, 1998. "A time-series analysis of UK annual and quarterly construction output data (1955-95)," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 409-416.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:16:y:1998:i:4:p:409-416
    DOI: 10.1080/014461998372196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, December.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
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