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Dependence risk analysis in energy, agricultural and precious metals commodities: a pair vine copula approach

Author

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  • Satish Kumar
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari
  • I. D. Raheem
  • Qiang Ji

Abstract

We apply pair vine copulas, specifically the C-vine and R-vine copulas, to examine the conditional multivariate dependence pattern/structure and R-vine copula-based value-at-risk (VaR) to assess financial portfolio risk. We examine the co-dependencies of 13 major commodity markets (which include three energy commodities, six agricultural commodities and four precious metals prices) from 2 January 2003 to 19 December 2016. Dividing our sample into three sub-periods, namely pre-GFC, GFC and post-GFC, we find that the dependencies among commodities undergo changes in a complex manner, changing in different financial conditions, and that the Student-t copula appears on the maximum number of occasions, especially during the GFC period, signifying the existence of fatter tails in the distributions of returns. We further show that the co-dependencies computed using R-vine copulas are best suited to compute the portfolio VaR during the considered time period.

Suggested Citation

  • Satish Kumar & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & I. D. Raheem & Qiang Ji, 2020. "Dependence risk analysis in energy, agricultural and precious metals commodities: a pair vine copula approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(28), pages 3055-3072, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:28:p:3055-3072
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1705240
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2024. "Price spillovers and interdependences in China's agricultural commodity futures market: Evidence from the US-China trade dispute," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    2. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2022. "Dynamic correlation between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1798-1849, August.
    3. Zhou, Wei & Chen, Yan & Chen, Jin, 2022. "Risk spread in multiple energy markets: Extreme volatility spillover network analysis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    4. Bernardina Algieri & Arturo Leccadito, 2020. "CARL and His POT: Measuring Risks in Commodity Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Spillovers and co-movements between precious metals and energy markets: Implications on portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Shahzad, Farrukh & Bouri, Elie & Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Energy, agriculture, and precious metals: Evidence from time-varying Granger causal relationships for both return and volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Nekhili, Ramzi & Sultan, Jahangir & Mensi, Walid, 2021. "Co-movements among precious metals and implications for portfolio management: A multivariate wavelet-based dynamic analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Abdullah, Mohammad & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Wali Ullah, G M & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Khan, Isma, 2023. "Tail risk contagion across electricity markets in crisis periods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    9. Hung, Ngo Thai, 2021. "Oil prices and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Ali, Shoaib & Yousfi, Mohamed & Chughtai, Sumayya & Min Du, Anna, 2024. "Return and volatility connectedness between agricultural tokens and us equity sectors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    11. Lahiani, Amine & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Vasbieva, Dinara G., 2021. "The safe-haven property of precious metal commodities in the COVID-19 era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Jain, Prachi & Maitra, Debasish, 2023. "Risk implications of dependence in the commodities: A copula-based analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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