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AIDS, longevity and long-run income


  • Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira


This article studies the long-run impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. We focus on the disincentive to human capital accumulation given by shorter life span. We work with a continuous time overlapping generations model with education and saving decisions, calibrated for a cross-section of countries. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in future, on average, 20% poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases such as Botswana, South Africa and Zambia by more than 40%. The impact of population decline was found to be irrelevant.

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  • Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira, 2013. "AIDS, longevity and long-run income," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(15), pages 2117-2125, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:15:p:2117-2125
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.654915

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kazuo Ogawa & Kazuyuki Suzuki, 2000. "Uncertainty and Investment: Some Evidence from the Panel Data of Japanese Manufacturing Firms," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 170-192, June.
    2. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 217-228, June.
    3. Julián Messina & Giovanna Vallanti, 2007. "Job Flow Dynamics and Firing Restrictions: Evidence from Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(521), pages 279-301, June.
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