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Is the negative correlation between inflation and growth real? An analysis of the effects of the oil supply shocks

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  • Sung Kim
  • Thomas Willett

Abstract

This paper investigates the view that the often-documented negative relationship between inflation and economic growth is largely spurious, resulting primarily from supply shocks which raise inflation and hurt growth. Evidence from tests of structural breaks is consistent with this hypothesis, but more detailed examination finds that while incorporation of supply-shock considerations does lower some of the estimates of the effects of inflation on growth for the industrial countries, these remain quite substantial. Little influence is found on the much lower estimates for developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Sung Kim & Thomas Willett, 2000. "Is the negative correlation between inflation and growth real? An analysis of the effects of the oil supply shocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 141-147.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:7:y:2000:i:3:p:141-147
    DOI: 10.1080/135048500351681
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2006. "Long-Run Monetary and Fiscal Policy Trade-Off in an Endogenous Growth Model with Transaction Costs," Post-Print halshs-00261119, HAL.
    2. Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2009. "Threshold effects in monetary and fiscal policies in a growth model: Assessing the importance of the financial system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 304-319, June.
    3. Odhiambo, Nicholas M. & Nyasha, Shiella, 2018. "Oil prices and economic growth in Kenya: A trivariate simulation," Working Papers 24411, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    4. Faris Nasif Alshubiri & Omar Ikbal Tawfik & Syed Ahsan Jamil, 2020. "Impact of petroleum and non-petroleum indices on financial development in Oman," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Christophe Rault & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2008. "Further theoretical and empirical evidence on money to growth relation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(13), pages 1.
    6. Kiliç, Cuneyt & Arica, Feyza, 2014. "Economic Freedom, Inflation Rate and their Impact on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 160-176, March.
    7. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
    8. Ariyanto, Anto, 2017. "CRITICAL REVIEW : Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Jangka Panjang : Sebuah Teori Baru Keynesian dan Bukti semiparametrik Lanjut," INA-Rxiv 5ydqg, Center for Open Science.
    9. Adam Fforde, 2005. "Persuasion: Reflections on economics, data, and the 'homogeneity assumption'," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 63-91.
    10. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    11. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "Oil Price and Energy Depletion Nexus in GCC Countries: Asymmetry Analyses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, June.

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