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Patterns of seasonality in employment in tourism in the UK


  • John Ashworth
  • Barry Thomas


Tourism employment has grown rapidly (a fact which has been of interest to policymakers concerned with job generation) but it has a marked seasonal character. Several attempts have been made by the industry to lessen seasonality in tourism demand (and hence in tourism employment) by fillng troughs. This paper uses recent advances in econometric work to investigate whether seasonality has lessened as a result of these policies, and if so, the nature of the changes in seasonality. A quarterly UK data series from 1982:1 to 1996:4 is examined. The distinction between stochastic and deterministic trend is made, and it is found that seasonality has in fact lessened and is best modelled as a break in deterministic seasonality. There has been approximately a 30% fall in the summer (second quarter) effect and approximately a 24% fall in the winter (fourth quarter) effect: thus the seasonal smoothing comes from lower hiring at the start of the peak season and lower firing at the end of the season.

Suggested Citation

  • John Ashworth & Barry Thomas, 1999. "Patterns of seasonality in employment in tourism in the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 735-739.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:11:p:735-739
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599352312

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Andrew Scott, 1995. "Why is consumption so seasonal?," Economics Working Papers 122, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Zacharias Psaradakis, 1997. "Testing for unit roots in time series with nearly deterministic seasonal variation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 421-439.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:touman:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:172-190 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "Seasonality Determinants for the Main Markets in Spain," Working Papers 2072/306517, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    3. Guimarães, Maria Helena & Sousa, Carlos & Dentinho, Tomaz & Boski, Tomasz, 2014. "Economic base model for the Guadiana estuary, Portugal an application for Integrated Coastal Zone Management," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 63-70.
    4. Evren Erdoğan Cosar, 2006. "Seasonal behaviour of the consumer price index of Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 449-455.
    5. repec:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:5:p:1006-1019 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Anna Dóra Sæþórsdóttir & C. Michael Hall & Þorkell Stefánsson, 2019. "Senses by Seasons: Tourists’ Perceptions Depending on Seasonality in Popular Nature Destinations in Iceland," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, May.
    7. repec:ite:iteeco:170203 is not listed on IDEAS

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