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Impacts on the U.S. macroeconomy of mandatory business closures in response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  • Terrie Louise Walmsley
  • Adam Rose
  • Dan Wei

Abstract

We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of mandatory business closures in the U.S. and many other countries in order to control the spread of the COVID-19. The analysis is based on the application of a modified version of the GTAP model. We simulate mandatory closures in all countries or parts of countries that had imposed them as of 7 April for three-month and six-month cases. For the three-month scenario, we estimate a 20.3% decline of U.S. GDP on an annual basis, or $4.3 trillion. The employment decline of 22.4% in the U.S. for the three-month closure represents 35.2 million workers for that period. If the mandatory closures are extended to six months because of a second wave, these negative impacts would slightly more than double. The employment impacts are slightly greater in percentage terms than the GDP impacts because most service sectors, which are generally more labour-intensive, are more negatively impacted by the closures than are ‘essential’ sectors. Our results should be considered upper-bound estimates given such assumptions as businesses laying off workers no longer paying them wages or salaries. Note also that the article examines the mandatory closures alone and does not factor in any countervailing fiscal or monetary policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Terrie Louise Walmsley & Adam Rose & Dan Wei, 2021. "Impacts on the U.S. macroeconomy of mandatory business closures in response to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(15), pages 1293-1300, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:28:y:2021:i:15:p:1293-1300
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1809626
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    Cited by:

    1. Prager, Fynnwin & Rhoads, Mohja & Martínez, Jose N., 2022. "The COVID-19 economic shutdown and the future of flexible workplace practices in the South Bay region of Los Angeles County," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 241-255.
    2. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    3. Yugang He & Yinhui Wang, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic: Fresh Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Damilola Giwa-Daramola & Harvey S. James, 2023. "COVID-19 and Microeconomic Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Study on Ethiopian and Nigerian Households," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.
    5. Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Jiaze Sun & Huijuan Lee & Jun Yang, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    7. Zhao, Hongjun & Chen, Na, 2022. "Medium and long-term impact of SARS on total factor productivity（TFP): Empirical evidence from Chinese industrial enterprises," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Richard Florida & Todd Gabe, 2023. "COVID-19, the New Urban Crisis, and Cities: How COVID-19 Compounds the Influence of Economic Segregation and Inequality on Metropolitan Economic Performance," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 37(4), pages 328-348, November.
    9. Nawaz, Muhammad Zahid & Nawaz, Shahid & Guzmán, Francisco & Plotkina, Daria, 2023. "The aftermath of Covid-19: The rise of pandemic animosity among consumers and its scale development," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Bryan S. Weber & Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2022. "COVID‐19 challenges and firm responses: Analysis of a city‐wide census in a developing country," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2184-2195, September.

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