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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Flood Hazard Zones

Author

Listed:
  • Tomasz Dysarz

    (Poznan University of Life Sciences)

  • Paweł Marcinkowski

    (Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW)

  • Joanna Wicher-Dysarz

    (Poznan University of Life Sciences)

  • Mikołaj Piniewski

    (Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW)

  • Dorota Mirosław-Świątek

    (Warsaw University of Life Sciences – SGGW)

  • Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

    (Poznan University of Life Sciences)

Abstract

There have been many destructive pluvial and fluvial floods in Poland and the projection of increasing flood hazards in the future is a reason of considerable concern. The maps of river hazard zones are changing over time, and understanding these changes is of primary importance for flood risk reduction and climate change adaptation. This article aims to assess the impact of climate change on the spatial extent and depth classes of flood hazard zones for a selected reach of the River Warta in the western part of Poland. To this end, we integrated the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model of the Warta River Basin with the 1D hydraulic model HEC-RAS of the selected reach. The climate change effect was quantified based on the coupled model simulations forced with bias-corrected projections from the EURO-CORDEX project. Flood hazard maps were developed for two townships along the River Warta (Oborniki and Wronki), three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (one for the baseline scenario in the reference period, 1971–2000; one for RCP 4.5 and one for RCP 8.5, for the time horizon 2021–2050) and for three return periods (10-, 100- and 500-year floods). Based on the ensemble mean, the increase in the flooded area projected in the future is more pronounced for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. This unique combination of software and data enabled the transformation of climate change impact into the land surface part of the hydrological cycle and assessment of changes in flood hazard and opens the way to assess the potential increases in the economic losses in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Dysarz & Paweł Marcinkowski & Joanna Wicher-Dysarz & Mikołaj Piniewski & Dorota Mirosław-Świątek & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, 2025. "Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Flood Hazard Zones," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(2), pages 963-977, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-024-04002-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-04002-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Winsemius, Hessel C. & Jongman, Brenden & Veldkamp, Ted I.E. & Hallegatte, Stephane & Bangalore, Mook & Ward, Philip J., 2018. "Disaster risk, climate change, and poverty: assessing the global exposure of poor people to floods and droughts," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 328-348, June.
    2. Bogusława Baran-Zgłobicka & Dominika Godziszewska & Wojciech Zgłobicki, 2021. "The Flash Floods Risk in the Local Spatial Planning (Case Study: Lublin Upland, E Poland)," Resources, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.
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