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A Comparative Assessment of Metaheuristic Optimized Extreme Learning Machine and Deep Neural Network in Multi-Step-Ahead Long-term Rainfall Prediction for All-Indian Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Radhikesh Kumar

    (National Institute of Technology Patna)

  • Maheshwari Prasad Singh

    (National Institute of Technology Patna)

  • Bishwajit Roy

    (National Institute of Technology Patna
    VIT Bhopal University)

  • Afzal Hussain Shahid

    (National Institute of Technology Patna)

Abstract

Prediction of long-term rainfall patterns is a highly challenging task in the hydrological field due to random nature of rainfall events. The contribution of monthly rainfall is important in agriculture and hydrological tasks. This paper proposes two data-driven models, namely biogeography-based extreme learning machine (BBO-ELM) and deep neural network (DNN), to predict one, two, and three month-ahead rainfall over India (All-India and six other homogeneous regions). Three other data-driven models called ELM, genetic algorithm (GA)-based ELM, and particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based ELM are used to compare the performance of the proposed models. Firstly, partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is applied in all datasets to select the optimal number of lags for input to the models. Secondly, the wavelet-based data pre-processing technique is applied in selected optimal lags and feed to the proposed models for achieving higher prediction performance. To investigate the performance of proposed models, a non-parametric statistical test, Anderson–Darling’ Normality test, is performed in all India dataset. The wavelet-based proposed hybrid models show better prediction capability compared to optimal lag-based proposed models. This study shows the successful application of time-series data using proposed techniques (optimal lags-based BBO-ELM and wavelet-based DNN) in the hydrological field which may be used for risk mitigation from dreadful natural events.

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  • Radhikesh Kumar & Maheshwari Prasad Singh & Bishwajit Roy & Afzal Hussain Shahid, 2021. "A Comparative Assessment of Metaheuristic Optimized Extreme Learning Machine and Deep Neural Network in Multi-Step-Ahead Long-term Rainfall Prediction for All-Indian Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1927-1960, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02822-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02822-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kai Lun Chong & Sai Hin Lai & Yu Yao & Ali Najah Ahmed & Wan Zurina Wan Jaafar & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2020. "Performance Enhancement Model for Rainfall Forecasting Utilizing Integrated Wavelet-Convolutional Neural Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2371-2387, June.
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    4. Rafael Gonzalez Perea & Miguel Ángel Moreno & Victor Buono Silva Baptista & Juan Ignacio Córcoles, 2020. "Decision Support System Based on Genetic Algorithms to Optimize the Daily Management of Water Abstraction from Multiple Groundwater Supply Sources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4739-4755, December.
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    6. Alireza Farrokhi & Saeed Farzin & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi, 2020. "A New Framework for Evaluation of Rainfall Temporal Variability through Principal Component Analysis, Hybrid Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, and Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(10), pages 3363-3385, August.
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    1. Mahdie Afshari Nia & Fatemeh Panahi & Mohammad Ehteram, 2023. "Convolutional Neural Network- ANN- E (Tanh): A New Deep Learning Model for Predicting Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(4), pages 1785-1810, March.
    2. Prabal Das & D. A. Sachindra & Kironmala Chanda, 2022. "Machine Learning-Based Rainfall Forecasting with Multiple Non-Linear Feature Selection Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6043-6071, December.
    3. Yashon O. Ouma & Ditiro B. Moalafhi & George Anderson & Boipuso Nkwae & Phillimon Odirile & Bhagabat P. Parida & Jiaguo Qi, 2022. "Dam Water Level Prediction Using Vector AutoRegression, Random Forest Regression and MLP-ANN Models Based on Land-Use and Climate Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-31, November.
    4. Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Zohreh Sheikh Khozani & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2023. "Convolutional Neural Network -Support Vector Machine Model-Gaussian Process Regression: A New Machine Model for Predicting Monthly and Daily Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3631-3655, July.
    5. Haibo Gong & Fusheng Jiao & Li Cao & Huiyu Liu, 2022. "Long-term Precipitation Estimation Combining Time-Series Retrospective Forecasting and Downscaling-Calibration Procedure," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 3087-3106, July.
    6. Ramesh Murlidhar Bhatawdekar & Radhikesh Kumar & Mohanad Muayad Sabri Sabri & Bishwajit Roy & Edy Tonnizam Mohamad & Deepak Kumar & Sangki Kwon, 2023. "Estimating Flyrock Distance Induced Due to Mine Blasting by Extreme Learning Machine Coupled with an Equilibrium Optimizer," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-26, February.

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