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A New Methodology for Reference Evapotranspiration Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis under Climate Change Conditions Based on Machine Learning, Multi Criteria Decision Making and Monte Carlo Methods

Author

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  • Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh

    (Department of Water Engineering and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan 35131-19111, Iran)

  • Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki

    (Department of Water Engineering and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan 35131-19111, Iran)

  • Amirreza Morshed-Bozorgdel

    (Department of Water Engineering and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan 35131-19111, Iran)

  • Saeed Farzin

    (Department of Water Engineering and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan 35131-19111, Iran)

Abstract

In the present study, a new methodology for reference evapotranspiration (ETo) prediction and uncertainty analysis under climate change and COVID-19 post-pandemic recovery scenarios for the period 2021–2050 at nine stations in the two basins of Lake Urmia and Sefidrood is presented. For this purpose, firstly ETo data were estimated using meteorological data and the FAO Penman–Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method. Then, ETo modeling by six machine learning techniques including multiple linear regression (MLR), multiple non-linear regression (MNLR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), model tree M5 (M5), random forest (RF) and least-squares boost (LSBoost) was carried out. The technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was used under seven scenarios to rank models with evaluation and time criteria in the next step. After proving the acceptable performance of the LSBoost model, the downscaling of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) by the delta change factor (CF) method under three models ACCESS-ESM1-5, CanESM5 and MRI-ESM2-0 (scenarios SSP245-cov-fossil (SCF), SSP245-cov-modgreen (SCM) and SSP245-cov-strgreen (SCS)) was performed. The results showed that the monthly changes in the average T increases at all stations for all scenarios. Also, the average monthly change ratio of P increases in most stations and scenarios. In the next step, ETo forecasting under climate change for periods (2021–2050) was performed using the best model. Prediction results showed that ETo increases in all scenarios and stations in a pessimistic and optimistic state. In addition, the Monte Carlo method (MCM) showed that the lowest uncertainty is related to the Mianeh station in the MRI-ESM2-0 model and SCS scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh & Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki & Amirreza Morshed-Bozorgdel & Saeed Farzin, 2022. "A New Methodology for Reference Evapotranspiration Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis under Climate Change Conditions Based on Machine Learning, Multi Criteria Decision Making and Monte Carlo Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-37, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:5:p:2601-:d:757042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh & Saeed Farzin, 2022. "Introducing a Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Model and Developing its Performance in Estimating Water Quality Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3901-3927, August.
    2. Di Nunno, Fabio & Granata, Francesco, 2023. "Future trends of reference evapotranspiration in Sicily based on CORDEX data and Machine Learning algorithms," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    3. Stefan Tsokov & Milena Lazarova & Adelina Aleksieva-Petrova, 2022. "A Hybrid Spatiotemporal Deep Model Based on CNN and LSTM for Air Pollution Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-38, April.

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