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Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations

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  • A. Adeloye
  • B.-S. Soundharajan
  • C. Ojha
  • R. Remesan

Abstract

This study has evaluated the effects of improved, hedging-integrated reservoir rule curves on the current and climate-change-perturbed future performances of the Pong reservoir, India. The Pong reservoir was formed by impounding the snow- and glacial-dominated Beas River in Himachal Pradesh. Simulated historic and climate-change runoff series by the HYSIM rainfall-runoff model formed the basis of the analysis. The climate perturbations used delta changes in temperature (from 0° to +2 °C) and rainfall (from −10 to +10 % of annual rainfall). Reservoir simulations were then carried out, forced with the simulated runoff scenarios, guided by rule curves derived by a coupled sequent peak algorithm and genetic algorithms optimiser. Reservoir performance was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. The results show that the historic vulnerability reduced from 61 % (no hedging) to 20 % (with hedging), i.e., better than the 25 % vulnerability often assumed tolerable for most water consumers. Climate change perturbations in the rainfall produced the expected outcomes for the runoff, with higher rainfall resulting in more runoff inflow and vice-versa. Reduced runoff caused the vulnerability to worsen to 66 % without hedging; this was improved to 26 % with hedging. The fact that improved operational practices involving hedging can effectively eliminate the impacts of water shortage caused by climate change is a significant outcome of this study. Copyright The Author(s) 2016

Suggested Citation

  • A. Adeloye & B.-S. Soundharajan & C. Ojha & R. Remesan, 2016. "Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 445-470, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:2:p:445-470
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1171-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Beshavard, Mahdi & Adib, Arash & Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad & Kisi, Ozgur, 2022. "Establishing effective warning storage to derive optimal reservoir operation policy based on the drought condition," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
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    5. Ruqayah Mohammed & Miklas Scholz & Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani, 2017. "Temporal Hydrologic Alterations Coupled with Climate Variability and Drought for Transboundary River Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1489-1502, March.
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    8. Youngkyu Jin & Sangho Lee, 2019. "Comparative Effectiveness of Reservoir Operation Applying Hedging Rules Based on Available Water and Beginning Storage to Cope with Droughts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1897-1911, March.

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