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Sensitivity of a Groundwater Flow Model to Both Climatic Variations and Management Scenarios in a Semi-arid Region of SE Spain

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  • Santiago Castaño
  • David Sanz
  • Juan Gómez-Alday

Abstract

Since 1980, southern Spain has registered a cycle of drought with magnitudes consistent with forecasts by the European Environment Agency on climate change for a 20 % decrease in precipitation in southern Europe due to the acceleration of global warming. The impact of this climatic event has been taken into account in drawing up water management plans for the basins affected. However, it has barely been considered in terms of the evolution of groundwater reserves or in their modelling, possibly because the effects are often masked by intensive anthropic withdrawals from regional water resources. This research uses a mathematical groundwater flow model to evaluate the reserve evolution in the Mancha Oriental aquifer system (SE Spain) due to impacts from this drought cycle. Its influence has been quantified (from 1980 to 2008) in the aquifer's storage deficit 23 Mm 3 /year and in the discharge volume of the Júcar River of 21 Mm 3 /year. Finally, three plausible scenarios are modelled with respect to 2027, the end date of the planning horizons proposed by Directive 2000/60/EC. These scenarios examine the economic repercussions on current groundwater resource management measurements. If the drought was to persist, the costs involved in the storage deficit were calculated in the range from 21.7 to 34.9 M€. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Castaño & David Sanz & Juan Gómez-Alday, 2013. "Sensitivity of a Groundwater Flow Model to Both Climatic Variations and Management Scenarios in a Semi-arid Region of SE Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2089-2101, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:7:p:2089-2101
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0277-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Capra & S. Consoli & B. Scicolone, 2013. "Long-Term Climatic Variability in Calabria and Effects on Drought and Agrometeorological Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 601-617, January.
    2. Santiago Castaño & David Sanz & Juan Gómez-Alday, 2010. "Methodology for Quantifying Groundwater Abstractions for Agriculture via Remote Sensing and GIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(4), pages 795-814, March.
    3. Teodoro Estrela & Elisa Vargas, 2012. "Drought Management Plans in the European Union. The Case of Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1537-1553, April.
    4. Roland Barthel & Tim Reichenau & Tatjana Krimly & Stephan Dabbert & Karl Schneider & Wolfram Mauser, 2012. "Integrated Modeling of Global Change Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 1929-1951, May.
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    1. Mustafa Goodarzi & Jahangir Abedi-Koupai & Manouchehr Heidarpour & Hamid Safavi, 2016. "Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge Using a Hybrid Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 133-148, January.
    2. Wen-Ping Tsai & Yen-Ming Chiang & Jun-Lin Huang & Fi-John Chang, 2016. "Exploring the Mechanism of Surface and Ground Water through Data-Driven Techniques with Sensitivity Analysis for Water Resources Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4789-4806, October.
    3. Mustafa Goodarzi & Jahangir Abedi-Koupai & Manouchehr Heidarpour & Hamid Reza Safavi, 2016. "Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge Using a Hybrid Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(1), pages 133-148, January.
    4. Yaoze Liu & Indrajeet Chaubey & Laura C. Bowling & Vincent F. Bralts & Bernard A. Engel, 2016. "Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the L-THIA-LID 2.1 Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4927-4949, October.

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