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Development and Application of an Integrated Water Balance Model to Study the Sensitivity of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Water Availability Scenario to Climatic Changes

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  • Md. Islam
  • Toshiya Aramaki
  • Keisuke Hanaki

Abstract

This study investigates the water availability scenario along Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) under future climatic changes. TMA, which depends largely on the adjacent Tone river for its water supply, suffers from water shortage almost once in 2–3 yr. A methodology was developed considering integrated approach to ascertain probable impact of climatic changes on the overall water availability along the Tone river and its impact on TMA. Historical trend in hydro-climatic characteristics of the Tone River basin was investigated at the first place to assess the changes and interrelationships. A deterministic water balance model was later developed, integrating natural hydrological balance as well as several water uses and river regulation effects. The natural water balance part of the model was tested for some hypothetical climate change scenarios to observe the sensitivity of the Tone river flow to climatic perturbations. For the worst scenario of precipitation and temperature changes, the unregulated Tone river flow was observed to be reduced by around 20–50%, varying over different months. After considering river regulation effects from reservoirs and diversion, the regulated flow was further analyzed based on some risk indices. Drought risk was observed to be increased significantly for the periods between April–July. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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  • Md. Islam & Toshiya Aramaki & Keisuke Hanaki, 2005. "Development and Application of an Integrated Water Balance Model to Study the Sensitivity of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Water Availability Scenario to Climatic Changes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(4), pages 423-445, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:19:y:2005:i:4:p:423-445
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-005-3277-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chong-yu Xu, 2000. "Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in Central Sweden," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 14(3), pages 177-189, June.
    2. A. Bobba & Dean Jeffries & Vijay Singh, 1999. "Sensitivity of Hydrological Variables in the Northeast Pond River Watershed, Newfoundland, Canada, Due to Atmospheric Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(3), pages 171-188, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey O’Hara & Konstantine Georgakakos, 2008. "Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1477-1497, October.
    2. Yurina Otaki & Hidehito Honda & Kazuhiro Ueda, 2020. "Water demand management: Visualising a public good," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Daniela D’Agostino & Alessandra Scardigno & Nicola Lamaddalena & Daniel Chami, 2014. "Sensitivity Analysis of Coupled Hydro-Economic Models: Quantifying Climate Change Uncertainty for Decision-Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4303-4318, September.
    4. Izabela Rojek, 2014. "Models for Better Environmental Intelligent Management within Water Supply Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3875-3890, September.

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