IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stabio/v14y2022i1d10.1007_s12561-021-09311-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Discriminatory Capacity of Prenatal Ultrasound Measures for Large-for-Gestational-Age Birth: A Bayesian Approach to ROC Analysis Using Placement Values

Author

Listed:
  • Soutik Ghosal

    (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development)

  • Zhen Chen

    (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development)

Abstract

Predicting large fetuses at birth is of great interest to obstetricians. Using an NICHD Scandinavian Study that collected longitudinal ultrasound examination data during pregnancy, we estimate diagnostic accuracy parameters of estimated fetal weight (EFW) at various times during pregnancy in predicting large for gestational age. We adopt a placement value-based Bayesian regression model with random effects to estimate ROC curves. The use of placement value allows us to model covariate effects directly on the ROC curves, and the adoption of a Bayesian approach accommodates the a priori constraint that an ROC curve of EFW near delivery should dominate another further away. The proposed methodology is shown to perform better than some alternative approaches in simulations and its application to the Scandinavian Study data suggest that diagnostic accuracy of EFW can improve about 65% from week 17 to 37 of gestation.

Suggested Citation

  • Soutik Ghosal & Zhen Chen, 2022. "Discriminatory Capacity of Prenatal Ultrasound Measures for Large-for-Gestational-Age Birth: A Bayesian Approach to ROC Analysis Using Placement Values," Statistics in Biosciences, Springer;International Chinese Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stabio:v:14:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s12561-021-09311-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s12561-021-09311-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12561-021-09311-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12561-021-09311-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lori E. Dodd & Margaret S. Pepe, 2003. "Partial AUC Estimation and Regression," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 614-623, September.
    2. Gengsheng Qin & Xiao-Hua Zhou, 2006. "Empirical Likelihood Inference for the Area under the ROC Curve," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 613-622, June.
    3. Margaret Sullivan Pepe & Tianxi Cai, 2004. "The Analysis of Placement Values for Evaluating Discriminatory Measures," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 528-535, June.
    4. Zhen Chen & Beom Seuk Hwang, 2019. "A Bayesian semiparametric approach to correlated ROC surfaces with stochastic order constraints," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 539-550, June.
    5. Margaret Sullivan Pepe, 2000. "An Interpretation for the ROC Curve and Inference Using GLM Procedures," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 352-359, June.
    6. Beom Seuk Hwang & Zhen Chen, 2015. "An Integrated Bayesian Nonparametric Approach for Stochastic and Variability Orders in ROC Curve Estimation: An Application to Endometriosis Diagnosis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(511), pages 923-934, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Holly Janes & Gary Longton & Margaret S. Pepe, 2009. "Accommodating covariates in receiver operating characteristic analysis," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 17-39, March.
    2. Tianxi Cai & Yingye Zheng, 2007. "Model Checking for ROC Regression Analysis," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 152-163, March.
    3. Y. Huang & M. S. Pepe, 2009. "A Parametric ROC Model-Based Approach for Evaluating the Predictiveness of Continuous Markers in Case–Control Studies," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 1133-1144, December.
    4. Chen, Xiwei & Vexler, Albert & Markatou, Marianthi, 2015. "Empirical likelihood ratio confidence interval estimation of best linear combinations of biomarkers," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 186-198.
    5. Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé & Roca-Pardiñas, Javier & Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen, 2011. "A new flexible direct ROC regression model: Application to the detection of cardiovascular risk factors by anthropometric measures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(12), pages 3257-3270, December.
    6. Margaret S. Pepe & Gary Longton & Holly Janes, 2009. "Estimation and comparison of receiver operating characteristic curves," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Pardo-Fernandez, Juan Carlos & Rodriguez-alvarez, Maria Xose & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2013. "A review on ROC curves in the presence of covariates," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013050, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    8. Wang, Suohong & Zhang, Biao, 2014. "Semiparametric empirical likelihood confidence intervals for AUC under a density ratio model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 101-115.
    9. Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé & Tahoces, Pablo G. & Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen & Lado, María José, 2011. "Comparative study of ROC regression techniques--Applications for the computer-aided diagnostic system in breast cancer detection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 888-902, January.
    10. Adimari Gianfranco & Chiogna Monica, 2010. "Simple Nonparametric Confidence Regions for the Evaluation of Continuous-Scale Diagnostic Tests," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, July.
    11. Wan, Shuwen, 2012. "An empirical likelihood confidence interval for the volume under ROC surface," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(7), pages 1463-1467.
    12. Daniel J. Luckett & Eric B. Laber & Samer S. El‐Kamary & Cheng Fan & Ravi Jhaveri & Charles M. Perou & Fatma M. Shebl & Michael R. Kosorok, 2021. "Receiver operating characteristic curves and confidence bands for support vector machines," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1422-1430, December.
    13. Beom Seuk Hwang & Zhen Chen, 2015. "An Integrated Bayesian Nonparametric Approach for Stochastic and Variability Orders in ROC Curve Estimation: An Application to Endometriosis Diagnosis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(511), pages 923-934, September.
    14. Peterson, A. Townsend & Papeş, Monica & Soberón, Jorge, 2008. "Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 63-72.
    15. Margaret Sullivan Pepe & Tianxi Cai, 2004. "The Analysis of Placement Values for Evaluating Discriminatory Measures," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 528-535, June.
    16. Jin, Hua & Lu, Ying, 2009. "The ROC region of a regression tree," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(7), pages 936-942, April.
    17. Holly Janes & Margaret S. Pepe, 2008. "Matching in Studies of Classification Accuracy: Implications for Analysis, Efficiency, and Assessment of Incremental Value," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 1-9, March.
    18. Ziyi Li & Yijian Huang & Dattatraya Patil & Martin G. Sanda, 2023. "Covariate adjustment in continuous biomarker assessment," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 39-48, March.
    19. Elisa–María Molanes-López & Ricardo Cao, 2008. "Relative density estimation for left truncated and right censored data," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 693-720.
    20. Man-Jen Hsu & Huey-Miin Hsueh, 2013. "The linear combinations of biomarkers which maximize the partial area under the ROC curves," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 647-666, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stabio:v:14:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s12561-021-09311-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.