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Modeling time-dependent and -independent indicators to facilitate identification of breakthrough research papers

Author

Listed:
  • Holly N. Wolcott

    (Thomson Reuters)

  • Matthew J. Fouch

    (Thomson Reuters)

  • Elizabeth R. Hsu

    (National Cancer Institute)

  • Leo G. DiJoseph

    (Thomson Reuters)

  • Catherine A. Bernaciak

    (Thomson Reuters)

  • James G. Corrigan

    (National Cancer Institute)

  • Duane E. Williams

    (ÜberResearch)

Abstract

Research funding organizations invest substantial resources to monitor mission-relevant research findings to identify and support promising new lines of inquiry. To that end, we have been pursuing the development of tools to identify research publications that have a strong likelihood of driving new avenues of research. This paper describes our work towards incorporating multiple time-dependent and -independent features of publications into a model to identify candidate breakthrough papers as early as possible following publication. We used multiple random forest models to assess the ability of indicators to reliably distinguish a gold standard set of breakthrough publications as identified by subject matter experts from among a comparison group of similar Thomson Reuters Web of Science™ publications. These indicators were then tested for their predictive value in random forest models. Model parameter optimization and variable selection were used to construct a final model based on indicators that can be measured within 6 months post-publication; the final model had an estimated true positive rate of 0.77 and false positive rate of 0.01.

Suggested Citation

  • Holly N. Wolcott & Matthew J. Fouch & Elizabeth R. Hsu & Leo G. DiJoseph & Catherine A. Bernaciak & James G. Corrigan & Duane E. Williams, 2016. "Modeling time-dependent and -independent indicators to facilitate identification of breakthrough research papers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 107(2), pages 807-817, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:107:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11192-016-1861-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-016-1861-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cristian Mejia & Yuya Kajikawa, 2018. "Using acknowledgement data to characterize funding organizations by the types of research sponsored: the case of robotics research," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 114(3), pages 883-904, March.
    2. Min, Chao & Bu, Yi & Sun, Jianjun, 2021. "Predicting scientific breakthroughs based on knowledge structure variations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Yang, Guancan & Lu, Guoxuan & Xu, Shuo & Chen, Liang & Wen, Yuxin, 2023. "Which type of dynamic indicators should be preferred to predict patent commercial potential?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Xue Wang & Xuemei Yang & Jian Du & Xuwen Wang & Jiao Li & Xiaoli Tang, 2021. "A deep learning approach for identifying biomedical breakthrough discoveries using context analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 5531-5549, July.
    5. Li, Xin & Wen, Yang & Jiang, Jiaojiao & Daim, Tugrul & Huang, Lucheng, 2022. "Identifying potential breakthrough research: A machine learning method using scientific papers and Twitter data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

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