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Modeling behavioral response to infectious diseases in an online experiment

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  • Haosen He

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Frederick Chen

    (Wake Forest University)

  • Chu A. Yu

    (Wake Forest University)

Abstract

We formulate and numerically solve a game-theoretic model of rational agents’ self-protective actions in an epidemic game. We prove the existence of an equilibrium and show that our model can give rise to multiple equilibria. We then compare our model simulation results with data collected from real human players in an online experiment conducted by Chen et al. (2013). Compared with game-theoretic agents, human players choose to self-protect at a higher rate and experience a lower disease prevalence. However, they receive similar endgame outcomes as measured by payoffs. In addition, human players’ decisions are dependent on their infection history, and they are less responsive to changes in disease prevalence compared to game-theoretic agents. Our results suggest that human players in the epidemic game differ substantially from fully-rational, forward-looking, strategic agents in terms of decision-making mechanisms and several measures of game outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Haosen He & Frederick Chen & Chu A. Yu, 2025. "Modeling behavioral response to infectious diseases in an online experiment," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 29(1), pages 191-212, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reecde:v:29:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10058-025-00376-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10058-025-00376-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Li, Qiu & Li, MingChu & Lv, Lin & Guo, Cheng & Lu, Kun, 2017. "A new prediction model of infectious diseases with vaccination strategies based on evolutionary game theory," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 51-60.
    2. Chris T Bauch & Samit Bhattacharyya, 2012. "Evolutionary Game Theory and Social Learning Can Determine How Vaccine Scares Unfold," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-12, April.
    3. Lau Lilleholt & Ingo Zettler & Cornelia Betsch & Robert Böhm, 2023. "Development and validation of the pandemic fatigue scale," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Frederick Chen & Haosen He & Chu A.(Alex) Yu, 2024. "Modeling Behavioral Response to Infectious Diseases Under Information Delay," Working Papers 119, Wake Forest University, Economics Department.
    5. Frederick Chen & Amanda Griffith & Allin Cottrell & Yue-Ling Wong, 2013. "Behavioral Responses to Epidemics in an Online Experiment: Using Virtual Diseases to Study Human Behavior," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, January.
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