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Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five US metropolitan areas

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  • Troy Rosencrants
  • Walker Ashley

Abstract

Weather-related disasters and affiliated losses in the USA have amplified over time. However, prior research using normalization schemes on damage tallies suggests that weather hazard losses are not necessarily rising when inflation, changes in wealth, and growth in population are accounted. This study evaluates the latter factor, assessing if population changes and a sprawling development mode have led to increasing potential for tornado disasters in the USA. Specifically, this research shows where and how quickly tornado exposure is growing by appraising spatiotemporal trends in gridded population and housing unit data for five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The macroscale risk to tornadoes is represented by tornado day climatology and is related to the exposure of the five MSAs, which include Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL; Dallas/Fort Worth, TX; Oklahoma City, OK; and St. Louis, MO. Supplementing the macroscale investigation, an observationally derived, hypothetical violent tornado track is transposed on various development types in each MSA to determine the microscale changes in human and built-environment exposure. Results demonstrate increased exposure in all MSAs at both the macro- and microscale. Of the five MSAs studied, Dallas, TX, had the greatest potential for a tornado disaster due to the higher risk for tornado occurrence comingling with the amount of MSA exposure. These results reveal further that amplifying exposure is a major impetus behind intensifying severe weather impacts and losses. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Troy Rosencrants & Walker Ashley, 2015. "Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five US metropolitan areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 121-140, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:1:p:121-140
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1704-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marius Paulikas & Walker Ashley, 2011. "Thunderstorm Hazard vulnerability for the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 1077-1092, September.
    2. Hongmian Gong & James o. Wheeler, 2002. "The Location and Suburbanization of Business and Professional Services in the Atlanta Area," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 341-369.
    3. Stanley Changnon, 2003. "Shifting Economic Impacts from Weather Extremes in the United States: A Result of Societal Changes, Not Global Warming," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(2), pages 273-290, June.
    4. Adam Smith & Richard Katz, 2013. "US billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: data sources, trends, accuracy and biases," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 387-410, June.
    5. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen M. Strader & Walker S. Ashley & Thomas J. Pingel & Andrew J. Krmenec, 2017. "Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 301-313, March.
    2. Stephen M. Strader, 2018. "Spatiotemporal changes in conterminous US wildfire exposure from 1940 to 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 543-565, May.
    3. Alex P. Ferguson & Walker S. Ashley, 2017. "Spatiotemporal analysis of residential flood exposure in the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(2), pages 989-1016, June.
    4. Hai-Min Lyu & Guo-Fu Wang & Wen-Chieh Cheng & Shui-Long Shen, 2017. "Tornado hazards on June 23 in Jiangsu Province, China: preliminary investigation and analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 597-604, January.
    5. José Francisco León-Cruz & Rocío Castillo-Aja, 2022. "A GIS-based approach for tornado risk assessment in Mexico," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1563-1583, November.

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