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Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential

Author

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  • Stephen M. Strader

    (Villanova University)

  • Walker S. Ashley

    (Northern Illinois University)

  • Thomas J. Pingel

    (Northern Illinois University)

  • Andrew J. Krmenec

    (Northern Illinois University)

Abstract

While risk and associated hazard characteristics are important components of disaster formation, the consequences of hazards are often driven by underlying human and built-environment vulnerabilities. Yet, there has been little research conducted on how the evolving contributors of risk and vulnerability commingle to produce disaster potential. In this study, we assess the interaction of risk and vulnerability by investigating a single hazard, the tornado. How future changes in risk and vulnerability influence tornado disaster probability is estimated by integrating, for the first time, projected residential built environment data and modeled future severe weather environments. Results suggest that, although the projected twenty-first century escalation in tornado risk will play a role in increasing disaster consequences and frequency, growth in the human-built environment is projected to outweigh the effects of increased risk on future tornado disaster potential. While changes in societal exposure are projected to overshadow potential climate change-driven alterations in tornado risk, the combination of both an increase in risk and exposure may lead to a threefold increase in median annual tornado impact magnitude and disaster potential from 2010 to 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen M. Strader & Walker S. Ashley & Thomas J. Pingel & Andrew J. Krmenec, 2017. "Projected 21st century changes in tornado exposure, risk, and disaster potential," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 301-313, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1905-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1905-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans Visser & Arthur Petersen & Willem Ligtvoet, 2014. "On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 461-477, August.
    2. Troy Rosencrants & Walker Ashley, 2015. "Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five US metropolitan areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 121-140, August.
    3. Laurie Pearce, 2003. "Disaster Management and Community Planning, and Public Participation: How to Achieve Sustainable Hazard Mitigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 28(2), pages 211-228, March.
    4. Simmons, Kevin M., 2011. "Economic and Societal Impacts of Tornadoes," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9781878220998.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Burak Kaya & Onur Alisan & Alican Karaer & Eren Erman Ozguven, 2024. "Assessing Tornado Impacts in the State of Kentucky with a Focus on Demographics and Roadways Using a GIS-Based Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-27, January.
    2. Romane Bouchard & Djordje Romanic, 2023. "Monte Carlo modeling of tornado hazard to wind turbines in Germany," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3899-3923, April.

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