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Hazus-MH earthquake modeling in the central USA

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  • Jonathan Remo
  • Nicholas Pinter

Abstract

This investigation was undertaken to assess the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH (v2.0) earthquake model to model parameters and to guide the selection of these parameters for realistic earthquake-loss assessment in the central USA. To accomplish these goals, we performed several sensitivity analyses and a validation assessment using earthquake damage surveys from the 2008 M5.2 Mt. Carmel, Illinois earthquake. We evaluated the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH earthquake model to the selection of seismic hazard data, attenuation function, soils data, liquefaction data, and structural fragility curves. These sensitivity analyses revealed that earthquake damage, loss, and casualty estimates are most sensitive to the seismic hazard data and selection of the attenuation function. The selection of the seismic hazard data and attenuation function varied earthquake damages and capital-stock losses by ±68 % and casualty estimates by ±84 %. The validation assessment revealed that Hazus-MH overpredicted observed damages by 68–221 % depending on the model parameters employed. The model run using region-specific soils, liquefaction, and structure fragility curves produced the most realistic damage estimate (within 68 % of actual damages). Damage estimates using default Hazus-MH parameters were overpredicted by 155 %. The uncertainties identified here are similar to uncertainties recognized in other Hazus-MH validation assessments. Despite uncertainties in Hazus-MH earthquake-loss estimates, such estimates are still useful for planning and response so long as the limitations of the results are properly conveyed to planners, decision makers, emergency responders, and the public. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Remo & Nicholas Pinter, 2012. "Hazus-MH earthquake modeling in the central USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 1055-1081, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:63:y:2012:i:2:p:1055-1081
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0206-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Ploeger & G. Atkinson & C. Samson, 2010. "Applying the HAZUS-MH software tool to assess seismic risk in downtown Ottawa, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 53(1), pages 1-20, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jong-Hwa Park & Myoungsu Shin & Gi-Hyoug Cho, 2016. "A dynamic estimation of casualties from an earthquake based on a time-use survey: applying HAZUS-MH software to Ulsan, Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 289-306, March.
    2. Stav Shapira & Tsafrir Levi & Yaron Bar-Dayan & Limor Aharonson-Daniel, 2018. "The impact of behavior on the risk of injury and death during an earthquake: a simulation-based study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1059-1074, April.
    3. T. Levi & D. Bausch & O. Katz & J. Rozelle & A. Salamon, 2015. "Insights from Hazus loss estimations in Israel for Dead Sea Transform earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 365-388, January.
    4. Stav Shapira & Lena Novack & Yaron Bar-Dayan & Limor Aharonson-Daniel, 2016. "An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-11, March.
    5. Xiang Zeng & Xinzheng Lu & T. Y. Yang & Zhen Xu, 2016. "Application of the FEMA-P58 methodology for regional earthquake loss prediction," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 177-192, August.
    6. Sang-Guk Yum & Kiyoung Son & Seunghyun Son & Ji-Myong Kim, 2020. "Identifying Risk Indicators for Natural Hazard-Related Power Outages as a Component of Risk Assessment: An Analysis Using Power Outage Data from Hurricane Irma," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Rehman Akhtar & Joost Santos, 2013. "Risk-based input–output analysis of hurricane impacts on interdependent regional workforce systems," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(1), pages 391-405, January.
    8. Sang-Guk Yum & Ji-Myong Kim & Kiyoung Son, 2020. "Natural Hazard Influence Model of Maintenance and Repair Cost for Sustainable Accommodation Facilities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-11, June.
    9. Heidi Kreibich & Philip Bubeck & Michael Kunz & Holger Mahlke & Stefano Parolai & Bijan Khazai & James Daniell & Tobia Lakes & Kai Schröter, 2014. "A review of multiple natural hazards and risks in Germany," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2279-2304, December.
    10. Jong-Hwa Park & Myoungsu Shin & Gi-Hyoug Cho, 2016. "A dynamic estimation of casualties from an earthquake based on a time-use survey: applying HAZUS-MH software to Ulsan, Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 289-306, March.
    11. Du, Ao & Wang, Xiaowei & Xie, Yazhou & Dong, You, 2023. "Regional seismic risk and resilience assessment: Methodological development, applicability, and future research needs – An earthquake engineering perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).

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