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Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975–2004

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  • Scott Sheridan
  • Adam Kalkstein
  • Laurence Kalkstein

Abstract

This study addresses the long-term trends in heat-related mortality across 29 US metropolitan areas from 1975 to 2004 to discern the spatial patterns and temporal trends in heat vulnerability. Mortality data have been standardized to account for population trends, and seasonal and interannual variability. On days when a city experienced an “oppressive” air mass, mean anomalous mortality was calculated, along with the likelihood that oppressive days led to a mortality response at least one standard deviation above the baseline value. Results show a general decline in heat-related mortality from the 1970s to 1990s, after which the decline seems to have abated. The likelihood of oppressive days leading to significant increases in mortality has shown less of a decline. The number of oppressive days has stayed the same or increased at most metropolitan areas. With US homes near saturation in terms of air-conditioning availability, an aging population is still significantly vulnerable to heat events. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Sheridan & Adam Kalkstein & Laurence Kalkstein, 2009. "Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975–2004," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(1), pages 145-160, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:50:y:2009:i:1:p:145-160
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-008-9327-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whitman, S. & Good, G. & Donoghue, E.R. & Benbow, N. & Shou, W. & Mou, S., 1997. "Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(9), pages 1515-1518.
    2. Harlan, Sharon L. & Brazel, Anthony J. & Prashad, Lela & Stefanov, William L. & Larsen, Larissa, 2006. "Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(11), pages 2847-2863, December.
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    1. Baulcomb, Corinne, 2011. "Review of the Evidence Linking Climate Change to Human Health for Eight Diseases of Tropical Importance," Working Papers 131463, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.
    2. David Hondula & Robert Davis, 2014. "The predictability of high-risk zones for heat-related mortality in seven US cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 771-788, November.
    3. -, 2011. "An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the health sector in Montserrat," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38589, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Kristie S. Gutierrez & Catherine E. LePrevost, 2016. "Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    5. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38597, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Ghasem Toloo & Gerard FitzGerald & Peter Aitken & Kenneth Verrall & Shilu Tong, 2013. "Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems: systematic review of epidemiological evidence," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 58(5), pages 667-681, October.

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