IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i7p3763-d776731.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Extreme Temperatures on Mortality: A Multi-City Study in Belgium

Author

Listed:
  • Claire Demoury

    (Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Raf Aerts

    (Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
    Division Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), 3001 Leuven, Belgium
    Center for Environmental Sciences, University of Hasselt, 3590 Hasselt, Belgium)

  • Bram Vandeninden

    (Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Bert Van Schaeybroeck

    (Department of Meteorological Research and Development, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, 1180 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Eva M. De Clercq

    (Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

Abstract

In light of climate change, health risks are expected to be exacerbated by more frequent high temperatures and reduced by less frequent cold extremes. To assess the impact of different climate change scenarios, it is necessary to describe the current effects of temperature on health. A time-stratified case-crossover design fitted with conditional quasi-Poisson regressions and distributed lag non-linear models was applied to estimate specific temperature-mortality associations in nine urban agglomerations in Belgium, and a random-effect meta-analysis was conducted to pool the estimates. Based on 307,859 all-cause natural deaths, the mortality risk associated to low temperature was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.21–1.44) and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08–1.36) for high temperature relative to the minimum mortality temperature (23.1 °C). Both cold and heat were associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. We observed differences in risk by age category, and women were more vulnerable to heat than men. People living in the most built-up municipalities were at higher risk for heat. Air pollutants did not have a confounding effect. Evidence from this study helps to identify specific populations at risk and is important for current and future public health interventions and prevention strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Claire Demoury & Raf Aerts & Bram Vandeninden & Bert Van Schaeybroeck & Eva M. De Clercq, 2022. "Impact of Short-Term Exposure to Extreme Temperatures on Mortality: A Multi-City Study in Belgium," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:7:p:3763-:d:776731
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/7/3763/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/7/3763/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Whitman, S. & Good, G. & Donoghue, E.R. & Benbow, N. & Shou, W. & Mou, S., 1997. "Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(9), pages 1515-1518.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kai Liu & Ziyi Ni & Mei Ren & Xiaoqing Zhang, 2022. "Spatial Differences and Influential Factors of Urban Carbon Emissions in China under the Target of Carbon Neutrality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Liang Chen & Mingxiang Yang & Xuan Liu & Xing Lu, 2022. "Attribution and Sensitivity Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Miguel Ángel Navas-Martín & José Antonio López-Bueno & María Soledad Ascaso-Sánchez & Fernando Follos & José Manuel Vellón & Isidro Juan Mirón & María Yolanda Luna & Gerardo Sánchez-Martínez & Julio D, 2023. "Territory Differences in Adaptation to Heat among Persons Aged 65 Years and Over in Spain (1983–2018)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-12, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Nairn & Bertram Ostendorf & Peng Bi, 2018. "Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, November.
    2. G. Brooke Anderson & Keith W. Oleson & Bryan Jones & Roger D. Peng, 2018. "Classifying heatwaves: developing health-based models to predict high-mortality versus moderate United States heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 439-453, February.
    3. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    4. Jae-Ik Kim & Myung-Jin Jun & Chang-Hwan Yeo & Ki-Hyun Kwon & Jun Yong Hyun, 2019. "The Effects of Land Use Zoning and Densification on Changes in Land Surface Temperature in Seoul," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Sabrina K. Beckmann & Michael Hiete, 2020. "Predictors Associated with Health-Related Heat Risk Perception of Urban Citizens in Germany," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Katherine E. Bishop-Williams & Lea Berrang-Ford & Jan M. Sargeant & David L. Pearl & Shuaib Lwasa & Didacus Bambaiha Namanya & Victoria L. Edge & Ashlee Cunsolo & IHACC Research Team & Bwindi Communit, 2018. "Understanding Weather and Hospital Admissions Patterns to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in the Healthcare Sector in Uganda," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, October.
    7. Riyi Li & Yufeng Zhang & Yumeng Cui, 2023. "Assessment of Outdoor Pedestrian Ventilation Performance While Controlling Building Array Scale and Density," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-27, April.
    8. Sue Smith & Alex J. Elliot & Shakoor Hajat & Angie Bone & Chris Bates & Gillian E. Smith & Sari Kovats, 2016. "The Impact of Heatwaves on Community Morbidity and Healthcare Usage: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, January.
    9. Huang, Xinjie & Song, Jiyun & Wang, Chenghao & Chan, Pak Wai, 2022. "Realistic representation of city street-level human thermal stress via a new urban climate-human coupling system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    10. An Vu & Shannon Rutherford & Dung Phung, 2019. "Heat Health Prevention Measures and Adaptation in Older Populations—A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-22, November.
    11. Xiang Zheng & Chuyao Feng & Mikio Ishiwatari, 2022. "Examining the Indirect Death Surveillance System of The Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-15, September.
    12. Amruta Nori-Sarma & Tarik Benmarhnia & Ajit Rajiva & Gulrez Shah Azhar & Prakash Gupta & Mangesh S. Pednekar & Michelle L. Bell, 2019. "Advancing our Understanding of Heat Wave Criteria and Associated Health Impacts to Improve Heat Wave Alerts in Developing Country Settings," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-13, June.
    13. Jing Li & Xin Xu & Guoyong Ding & Yun Zhao & Ruixia Zhao & Fuzhong Xue & Jing Li & Jinghong Gao & Jun Yang & Baofa Jiang & Qiyong Liu, 2016. "A Cross-Sectional Study of Heat Wave-Related Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice among the Public in the Licheng District of Jinan City, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, June.
    14. Scott Sheridan & Adam Kalkstein & Laurence Kalkstein, 2009. "Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975–2004," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(1), pages 145-160, July.
    15. Guilin Liu & Luocheng Zhang & Bin He & Xuan Jin & Qian Zhang & Bam Razafindrabe & Hailin You, 2015. "Temporal changes in extreme high temperature, heat waves and relevant disasters in Nanjing metropolitan region, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1415-1430, March.
    16. Robert E. Davis & Wendy M. Novicoff, 2018. "The Impact of Heat Waves on Emergency Department Admissions in Charlottesville, Virginia, U.S.A," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, July.
    17. Monteiro Ana & Carvalho Vânia & Velho Sara & Sousa Carlos, 2013. "The accuracy of the heat index to explain the excess of mortality and morbidity during heat waves – a case study in a mediterranean climate," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 20(20), pages 71-84, June.
    18. Steffen Merte, 2017. "Estimating heat wave-related mortality in Europe using singular spectrum analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 321-330, June.
    19. Katlego P. Ncongwane & Joel O. Botai & Venkataraman Sivakumar & Christina M. Botai, 2021. "A Literature Review of the Impacts of Heat Stress on Human Health across Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-27, May.
    20. Marc Poumadère & Claire Mays & Sophie Le Mer & Russell Blong, 2005. "The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1483-1494, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:7:p:3763-:d:776731. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.