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Assessing El Niño-induced drought in Zambia and its effects using earth observation data

Author

Listed:
  • Surajit Ghosh

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI))

  • Sneha Kour

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI))

  • Avinandan Taron

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI))

  • Karyn Kaywala

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI))

  • Punsisi Rajakaruna

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI))

Abstract

Southern Africa faces significant impacts of El Niño primarily in the form of droughts. Zambia is not an exception. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), rainfall anomaly and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) are robust indicators for drought studies due to their distinct and complementary roles. Our results reveal severe meteorological drought conditions in Zambia using SPI and rainfall anomaly. VCI values have declined in the cropping season due to vegetation stress induced by water deficit conditions. Low rainfall leads to widespread deterioration of crop production, with approximately 40.46% of the country experiencing drought conditions in 2023–2024. The Central, Eastern, Southern, Lusaka, and Copperbelt provinces showed lower VCI values in March and April 2024, indicating poor crop health and drought-like conditions. On the other hand, low rainfall has substantially influenced hydropower reservoirs. Significant surface water loss is observed in the hydropower reservoirs such as Itezhi Tezhi Dam (117.40 sq. km), Mita Hills Dam (25.72 sq. km) and in parts of Lake Kariba (58.72 sq. km) between December 2023 and April 2024. This loss has disrupted industries relying on water resources and hindered hydropower generation, leaving substantial portions of the population without electricity for extended periods. The present study aims to explore the power of open access Earth Observation data and cloud analytics to evaluate the extent and multi-sectoral impact of the recent drought in Zambia. Results highlight the upcoming challenges the country might face in food and nutrition and the critical need for stakeholder involvement and policy design to mitigate future crises and strengthen vulnerable communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Surajit Ghosh & Sneha Kour & Avinandan Taron & Karyn Kaywala & Punsisi Rajakaruna, 2025. "Assessing El Niño-induced drought in Zambia and its effects using earth observation data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4505-4530, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06976-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06976-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hambulo Ngoma & Patrick Lupiya & Mulako Kabisa & Faaiqa Hartley, 2021. "Correction to: Impacts of climate change on agriculture and household welfare in Zambia: an economy-wide analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-2, December.
    2. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
    3. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Erratum: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 171-171, February.
    4. Hambulo Ngoma & Patrick Lupiya & Mulako Kabisa & Faaiqa Hartley, 2021. "Impacts of climate change on agriculture and household welfare in Zambia: an economy-wide analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Surajit Ghosh & Jayesh Mukherjee, 2023. "Earth observation data to strengthen flood resilience: a recent experience from the Irrawaddy River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2749-2754, February.
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