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Development of a framework for the prediction of slope stability using machine learning paradigms

Author

Listed:
  • K. C. Rajan

    (Tribhuvan University
    Geoinfra Research Institute)

  • Milan Aryal

    (Tribhuvan University
    Government of Nepal)

  • Keshab Sharma

    (BGC Engineering Inc.)

  • Netra Prakash Bhandary

    (Ehime University)

  • Richa Pokhrel

    (Geoinfra Research Institute)

  • Indra Prasad Acharya

    (Tribhuvan University)

Abstract

Accurate slope stability prediction is of utmost importance to reduce disastrous effects of slope failures and landslides. However, conventional methods of slope stability analysis are complex and challenging, and more importantly, use of these methods in a wide-area slope stability assessment requires a large number of soil property and field investigation data. These complexities and challenges often demand some simplified statistical slope stability analysis models such as by using machine learning (ML) techniques. So, in this research, we develop slope stability prediction models using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) and classify the slopes as safe or unsafe using random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) methods. For this purpose, a dataset of 4,208 slope cases was created using limit equilibrium-based Slide software. The effectiveness of each model was then evaluated using statistical metrics and validated through roadside slope cases in Nepal, India, Canada, and the UK. In this study, Spencer’s method-based ANN model was found to have demonstrated the highest reliability. The findings of this work may contribute to simplified and better decision-making process in slope stability assessment, slope safety enhancement, and sustainability improvement in engineering projects involving soil slopes.

Suggested Citation

  • K. C. Rajan & Milan Aryal & Keshab Sharma & Netra Prakash Bhandary & Richa Pokhrel & Indra Prasad Acharya, 2025. "Development of a framework for the prediction of slope stability using machine learning paradigms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(1), pages 83-107, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06819-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06819-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Batmyagmar Dashbold & L. Sebastian Bryson & Matthew M. Crawford, 2023. "Landslide hazard and susceptibility maps derived from satellite and remote sensing data using limit equilibrium analysis and machine learning model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 235-265, March.
    2. Arunava Ray & Vikash Kumar & Amit Kumar & Rajesh Rai & Manoj Khandelwal & T. N. Singh, 2020. "Stability prediction of Himalayan residual soil slope using artificial neural network," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3523-3540, September.
    3. Peng Ye & Bin Yu & Wenhong Chen & Kan Liu & Longzhen Ye, 2022. "Rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility mapping using machine learning algorithms and comparison of their performance in Hilly area of Fujian Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 965-995, September.
    4. Talas Fikret Kurnaz & Caner Erden & Uğur Dağdeviren & Alparslan Serhat Demir & Abdullah Hulusi Kökçam, 2024. "Comparison of machine learning algorithms for slope stability prediction using an automated machine learning approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(8), pages 6991-7014, June.
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